Commodities Update February PMI data sound a note of caution For the most part, industrial commodity prices have stabilised or, in many cases, been rising recently. However, today’s manufacturing PMI data for February suggest that activity was subdued in China... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Has weak global demand contributed to the fall in US grain exports? Several years of bumper global harvests have seen a sustained downward trend in the prices of corn and wheat. At the same time, US exports of both crops have slumped in the current 2015/16 marketing... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will poor harvests in India drive wheat prices higher? Lower Indian wheat harvests this marketing year and next are likely to lead to output falling short of consumption in the world’s second-largest producer. But abundant stocks in the country mean that... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices of industrial commodities may finally be bottoming out Looking past the day-to-day volatility, the prices of many industrial commodities – including oil and base metals – appear to be finding a floor. This is at least consistent with our relatively... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The rally in the price of iron ore appears premature The recent surge in the price of iron ore is not supported by fundamentals. Chinese steel production fell sharply in January, while efforts to boost iron ore supply are ongoing. As such, we expect... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s aluminium consumption surge isn’t all it seems We think that recent reports suggesting China’s aluminium consumption surged last year and that the world market recorded a deficit don’t accurately reflect the fundamentals of the sector. The reality... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to fall as China plans further sales of stocks With the prospect of further sales of China’s vast state cotton stocks continuing to depress Chinese import demand, and US production rising, we think the price of cotton will drop further this year. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another month of solid Chinese metals imports Imports of many industrial metals had surged in December, so somewhat slower growth in January came as no surprise. However, the bigger picture is that China’s imports of metal have remained strong... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sluggish start to 2016 for Chinese agricultural import demand The detailed Chinese import data for January, released earlier today, indicate that import demand for agricultural commodities started the new year as it ended the last: weak. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Bumper start to the year for China’s PGM imports China’s imports of palladium and platinum surged in January. The seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday might have distorted the figures to some extent. Nonetheless, strong car... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Can gold rally even if Treasury yields rebound? Over short horizons the gold price is often driven by the same factors that determine US Treasury yields. This means that the price of the precious metal now looks increasingly vulnerable to a... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to rally as industry braces for strikes The platinum price is set to recover in 2016 as production in South Africa contracts, necessitating a draw-down in the abundant above-ground stocks. We believe that there is a renewed risk of strike... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No relief for ags as investors become more bearish Amid all the recent market turmoil, agricultural commodities haven’t performed too badly, with the S&P GSCI Agriculture index having only fallen by just over 1% since the start of the year. While the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Cautiously positive on lead demand Lead usage has contracted for two consecutive years. However, some of the downturn can be attributed to destocking, as well as a decline in China’s e-bike production. As these trends run their course... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Is REE demand from Europe waning? Although the latest data show that rare earth metal import growth has been slowing in the European Union (EU), this is largely due to base effects. Meanwhile, a number of indicators suggest EU rare... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are we close to the bottom for agricultural commodity prices? Several years of bumper harvests have left key agricultural commodities in abundant supply, helping to drag prices down to levels not seen since 2010. While many prices are probably close to the floor... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
