Energy Update Recovery in US natural gas prices likely to be a slow-burner High stocks due to the exceptionally mild winter will prevent US gas prices from recovering much this year, but strong demand growth should set the scene for higher prices further down the line. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is ECB easing good or bad for gold? The fall and subsequent rebound in the dollar price of gold after today’s announcement of additional monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) should help to settle the debate over what... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Feb.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board suggest that the market for palm oil continued to tighten in February, as falling production precipitated a further drawdown of stocks. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Recent rally in iron ore prices likely to be short-lived The price of iron ore has strengthened significantly so far this year, and saw its largest one-day move on Monday when it rose by almost $10 per tonne. The fact that iron ore has fallen by more than... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stock movements may point to optimism about demand LME exchange stocks have generally been falling this year, while Shanghai-based stocks have been rising. We suspect that rising stocks in China are a reflection of hopes that ongoing stimulus measures... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s REE exports start the year strongly China’s total rare earth element (REE) exports were lower in January and February than in December, largely due to the Chinese New Year holidays. But exports in both months were still higher than... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Another five years of rejection for coal The draft outline of China’s latest five-year plan spells more bad news for global coal prices as the government focuses on energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions, while continuing to support... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What should we make of the rebound in iron ore prices? The recent surge in the price of iron ore should be seen in the context of improving sentiment towards industrial commodities in general. The even larger price falls that occurred before have also... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remained robust in February China’s commodity import volumes dipped in February from a month earlier, in large part due to seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday. But the bigger picture is that imports of... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What’s behind the rebound in oil prices? The rebound in the price of Brent crude to as high as $40 per barrel today is consistent with our end- 2016 and end-2017 forecasts of $45 and $60, respectively, so we would not want to argue with it... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin finds favour with investors While supply is clearly tightening, the outlook for tin demand is still uncertain. As such, improved investor sentiment seems to explain much of the latest rally in the tin price, making it... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New (higher) forecasts for gold and silver We already had a relatively positive view on the outlook for precious metals. However, two new developments have encouraged us to revise up our medium-term projections for the price of gold and, as a... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver’s underperformance set to reverse soon The recent poor performance of silver is surprising given the resilience of the gold price and the recovery in industrial metals generally. One explanation is that reduced safe-haven demand has... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agriculturals can’t shake that sinking feeling While a weaker US dollar was a supporting factor for energy, industrial and precious metals commodities last month, it couldn’t stop the S&P GSCI Agriculture index continuing its downhill slide. The... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold starting to benefit from demand for inflation hedges The ongoing tussle between gold bulls and bears often boils down to a view on the outlook for US interest rates. If the Fed resumes its tightening soon as global risks fade, supporting the dollar, the... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Higher Japanese coal demand won't stop prices falling The restart of Japan's nuclear power plants is likely to reduce the country's demand for oil and gas while also allowing a rebalancing of the remaining consumption of fossil fuels towards coal... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
