Commodities Update What does a stronger Europe mean for commodities? It now appears likely that the European economy will record the strongest growth in nearly a decade in 2017. While Europe cannot compete with China or the US in terms of the likely impact on... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Recovery in China’s commodity imports likely to be short-lived China’s commodity import volumes bounced back in May, after a weak April. However, we doubt that this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery. Slower credit growth is expected to lead to weaker... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Is the US leaving the Paris Agreement significant? The withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change will not alter our forecasts of US demand for energy commodities, since the agreement was non-binding and President Trump had no... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Are we too bearish on the prospects for lead prices? Despite the recent rally in prices, we remain bearish on the long-term prospects for lead usage. While increased demand for start-stop systems in cars could provide some support to prices over the... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Mixed messages from China’s PMIs The official and unofficial May manufacturing PMIs for China told somewhat different stories. However, we are inclined to put more weight on the unofficial PMI, which fell for the third successive... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rising supply and weak demand to weigh on coal prices Coal prices have been supported recently by strong global economic growth. However, a slowing Chinese economy, rising supply and intense competition from cheap natural gas and renewable power mean... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Metals prices could fall sharply as sentiment turns Sentiment towards metals has deteriorated somewhat since the start of 2017. We had warned that this could happen as the large investor inflows into metals markets last year were mostly premised on... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update What could Trump’s budget mean for energy commodities? Donald Trump’s budget proposal is unlikely to dramatically alter the energy and oil markets, even if Congress does not significantly temper them. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher stocks reflect the slowdown in China’s activity Stocks generally rose over the last month, which we think is consistent with broader macroeconomic data showing a slowdown in China’s activity in April and the recent weakness in most metals prices. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does China’s slowdown mean for commodities? Growing evidence that China’s economy is decelerating has raised concerns about the impact of softer demand on global commodity markets. While we acknowledge that China’s slowdown will be a powerful... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Apr.) China’s activity and investment data for April showed clear signs of a slowdown. Given steadily tightening monetary conditions and less fiscal stimulus, we expect activity to slow further which will... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities lose their mojo It has been a torrid few weeks in global commodity markets, for the most part characterised by investor selling. Signs that China’s economy slowed abruptly in April weighed on the prices of most of... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Longer OPEC production cuts to boost oil prices An extension of OPEC’s output cuts until the end of March 2018 should be more than enough to bring stocks down to their five-year average and push prices up, even if US output continues to pick up and... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How will the crisis in Venezuela affect oil production? Continued weakness in Venezuela’s oil output this year should help the market to rebalance. In fact, the potential for further reductions in production represents an upside risk to prices. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gasoline consumption to accelerate after weak start We expect growth in US gasoline demand to pick up over the rest of the year as employment and wages rise. What’s more, a trend towards purchases of used cars and light trucks should offset reductions... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s import demand comes off the boil China’s commodity import volumes dropped back in April, with a notable downturn in the more industrial commodities. Volumes are likely to remain volatile in the coming months, but the prospect of... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
