Energy Update

US natural gas price collapses, revival to come by Q4

The precipitous drop in US natural gas prices won’t persist for the rest of the year. Prices should rise by Q4 as US production growth slows and LNG exports rise.

14th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

West Africa: cocoa prices to offset hit from poor harvest

The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices...

14th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Wave of supply will keep nickel prices low

We think the huge expansion in nickel supply will keep the market balance in a sizeable surplus this year. Accordingly, we don’t think the price will muster a recovery from its recent slump.

12th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

Global sugar rush to slowly fade away

After a sweet start to the year, sugar prices should take on a more sour note over the rest of 2024. Prices will fall back as El Niño comes to an end and the supply outlook improves but any relaxation...

8th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

US natural gas prices to stay low in 2024

We have revised down our forecast for US natural gas prices this year, as the outlook for domestic supply has improved. Note: Join our special online briefing on Middle East conflict, shipping...

2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Some positives in China’s PMI data

China PMI surveys showed some signs of strengthening in January. But we still think they understate the strength of metals demand, which we expect to hold up fairly well this year. Note: Join our...

1st February 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Will Saudi shift tack on oil policy?

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output significantly over the past year or so but that hasn’t prevented global oil prices from falling. Despite Aramco’s announcement today that it is postponing plans to...

30th January 2024 · 5 mins read

JODI Energy Demand Monitor

JODI Energy Demand Monitor

JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption paint a nuanced picture of global energy demand. While oil demand growth slowed towards the end of last year, consumption of natural gas was...

29th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Steel Production (Dec. & 2023)

Global steel production reportedly stagnated last year. We think it probably will again in 2024 as a drop in production in China should offset increasing output by most other producers.

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Real metals prices are high and have further to rise

Compared to their pre-pandemic averages, metals prices are high even after adjusting for inflation. We think that as green transition-related demand increases and monetary easing gets underway, real...

25th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Dec. & 2023)

Global aluminium production growth slowed to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.9% in 2022. We think softening output growth in China will cause global growth to fall back again this year.

22nd January 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Green demand to spur copper price gains in 2024

After a subdued 2023, we think the copper price will fare much better this year. We expect supply growth to moderate, while demand growth will be bolstered by the green transition.

19th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Energy Update

Energy prices are not that high in real terms

Energy prices seem historically high at first glance. However, that is not strictly the case. After adjusting for inflation, oil and US natural gas prices are already at or below pre-pandemic levels...

19th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Weak demand to keep lid on EU carbon price in 2024

The downward trend in the EU carbon price since early 2023 has been driven by lower demand for pollution permits on the back of industrial weakness and growth in cleaner energy sources. With energy...

17th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

Why hasn’t the Middle East sparked an oil price rally?

Perhaps surprisingly, the latest escalation in Middle East tensions has not prompted a surge in oil prices. We think this is because, so far, oil output is unaffected. Moreover, we suspect it also...

16th January 2024 · 4 mins read