Energy Update Government intervention in the coal market could backfire Coal prices have been boosted recently by a series of temporary factors. However, supply is growing quickly, which is raising the risk of a sharp drop in prices once demand drops back. 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jun.) There was across-the-board strength in China’s June activity and investment data, which helps to explain the recent resilience of industrial metals prices. However, we still expect ongoing policy... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Persistent strength in China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import demand has generally been strong so far in 2017. However, stocks of many industrial commodities are high suggesting that underlying demand may be somewhat weaker. Indeed, we... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update It is hard to be positive on nickel With the fading prospect of mine closures in the Philippines, the outlook for nickel supply is improving. At the same time, demand is expected to weaken this year. However, we think that the... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How tight is the cobalt market really? New supply prospects in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could ease the current tightness in the cobalt market. Admittedly, the country’s mine practices are controversial and there is a risk... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some strength at end-Q2 After diverging in May, the official and unofficial June manufacturing PMIs for China told a similar story of somewhat stronger activity in the final month of the quarter. However, the bigger picture... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How will South Africa’s mining charter affect PGM output? South Africa’s controversial new mining charter will probably exacerbate the decline in the PGM sector. Higher costs, in tandem with lower foreign investment, could weigh on PGM production going... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will US shale continue to flood the oil market? US shale production growth is likely to slow sharply towards the end of the year as the recent low prices cap the number of drilling rigs. What’s more, fewer efficiency gains will start to weigh on... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (May) After a strong start to 2017, growth in China’s refinery output appears to be slowing. This corroborates broader activity and investment data, which have lost some momentum going into the second... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low volatility here to stay Volatility in commodity markets is likely to remain lower than average for the next year. The main exception could be the oil market where any change in tack by OPEC would cause sharp moves in prices. 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How low will oil prices go this time? Fears about unrelenting growth in US oil production have pulled down oil prices again, despite stocks beginning to fall. However, faster demand growth combined with OPEC’s production cuts should be... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is palladium flying too close to the sun? Increased speculative activity appears to have been the main driver of the recent surge in the price of palladium, which reached a sixteen-year high of $910 per ounce on 9th June. However... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand to rise after a poor start to the year Global oil demand was disappointing in the first quarter of this year. Indeed, this is one reason why prices have continued to fall despite OPEC and some major non-OPEC producers extending their... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is this the beginning of a commodity downturn? The main commodity indices have edged lower this year but the headline figures mask very diverse underlying price movements. Looking ahead, we think that the macroeconomic backdrop for commodities... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks are not painting a clear picture of demand Exchange stocks generally fell over the last month. The bigger picture is that there have been sharp drawdowns in global exchange stocks of aluminium and zinc and a large build in copper inventories... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold’s luck to run out The price of gold was largely unaffected by the Fed’s decision to raise its policy rate target by 25bp, to between 1.00% and 1.25%, yesterday. While many have attributed the resilience in the gold... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read