Energy Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Oil prices jumped in recent days on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but, assuming that a direct conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is avoided, the fundamentals suggest... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Too soon to get excited about nickel The medium-term outlook for nickel demand has improved given that electric vehicles are likely to have a high nickel content. But, for now, the market is more than comfortably supplied. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price overvalued according to most indicators Elevated geopolitical risks and dovish market expectations for Fed tightening have supported the price of gold this year. While we have revised up our end-2017 and end-2018 forecasts, we still expect... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Capacity cuts starting to be felt in China’s PMIs China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs diverged again in October but they both paint a subdued picture of China’s activity. Somewhat ironically, lower commodity output is a key factor... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Price of Brent likely to slip back below $60 Growth in non-OPEC supply and lower geopolitical risks means that the price of Brent is unlikely to stay above $60 per barrel, even if OPEC extends its output cuts until the end of the year. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in coal imports likely to be temporary The rebound in China and India’s coal imports is likely to be short-lived as higher domestic production and slowing consumption growth reduce the need for imports. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Pockets of strength and weakness in China’s imports There was no clear trend in China’s September metals import data. Indeed, in many cases, we think incoming shipments appeared at odds with the underlying trends in domestic demand and supply. High... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Sep. & Q3) China’s September activity and investment data and Q3 GDP suggest that the economy is holding up well. However, both point to weakness in the construction sector, which will weigh on demand for metals... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities defy stronger dollar Despite a stronger US dollar, the S&P GSCI commodity index trended higher. With the exception of agriculture, all the other sub-indices recorded gains. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks fall, but cannot explain the surge in prices Total exchange stocks of nearly all the metals edged lower over the last month, which will have been a factor supporting prices. That said, the recent stock drawdowns have been relatively small. What... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran’s oil exports unlikely to fall any time soon President Trump’s refusal to waive sanctions on Iran’s oil industry has given a boost to oil prices, but it is not a given that Congress will reinstate sanctions and support from international... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybeans steal the show The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s latest set of estimates painted a more mixed picture this month. While the report was perceived as bearish for wheat and cotton, soybeans and corn rallied on... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A bumper month for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes surged in September. However, this could reflect a final push at the local level to boost activity ahead of the Party Congress this month. As such, import volumes... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG rally may run out of steam Temporary supply disruptions and strong demand in Asia have boosted LNG prices to an almost 9-month high. However, the rally may soon lose momentum as winter demand looks set to peak at a time of... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India’s gold demand to remain soft The Indian government’s decision to reverse an order that brought the gem & jewellery sector under anti-money laundering legislation is certainly good news for the gold industry. That said, demand is... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will US oil exports really help rebalance the market? The collapse in US net oil imports over the last few weeks has helped to draw down crude inventories in the country. This has raised hopes that market rebalancing is accelerating and has been one... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
