Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Dec.) China’s activity and investment held up well in December, although growth was markedly slower than earlier in the year. We expect the slowdown to continue in the coming months. 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Metals and energy power ahead Commodity indices started 2018 on solid ground, holding onto their end-2017 highs and supported by a depreciation of the US dollar. All sub-sectors of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index rose over the month... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to cheer about in the January WASDE The USDA’s latest set of estimates provide little reason to revive bullish sentiment in the grains and soybeans markets. Estimates of global corn, wheat and soybeans ending stocks for the 2017/18... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stock movements point to a tighter zinc market A surge in cancelled warrants on LME stocks can explain some of the rally in the price of zinc. That said, inventories of most other metals have risen over the last month, suggesting markets are amply... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports end 2017 with a slump China’s commodity imports dropped in December, coming off strong growth in November. But volumes remained healthy for 2017 as a whole. We expect imports to fall back as growth in China’s economy slows... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Freezing winter weather heats up energy prices Adverse weather conditions in the US and China have boosted US gas consumption and highlighted China’s dependence on coal. But as the weather normalises, and domestic gas infrastructure improves, we... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver will continue to underperform gold in 2018 At first glance, the recent poor performance of silver would appear surprising given that both gold and industrial metals prices rallied in 2017. However, we think that reduced safe-haven demand has... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil will struggle to hold on to its gains A combination of falling US stocks, mounting geopolitical risk and OPEC’s deal to extend its output cuts has pushed the price of oil higher in recent weeks. However, we think that rising non-OPEC... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium still in comfortable supply Aluminium production in China is likely to continue to fall over the next few months as the Chinese authorities impose output cuts. While this would give the impression of a tighter market, Shanghai... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs suggest a strong end to 2017 China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs diverged again in December, but both point to a solid performance at end-2017. However, we remain cautious on the outlook for 2018 and expect tighter... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lower stocks justify some of the strength in prices Total exchange stocks of most metals fell in 2017 on a combination of constrained supply and solid growth in China’s demand in the first half of the year. We expect stocks to build over the course of... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Nov.) China’s latest activity and investment data point to more subdued metals demand than earlier in the year. Despite curbs on supply, we still think prices are reflecting undue optimism about demand. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold shrugs off Fed rate hike Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold gained 1.6% following the Fed’s decision to hike US interest rates for the third time this year and the fifth time in this tightening cycle. The lack of... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities come off the boil Commodity indices took a tumble at the start of December, coinciding with a slight appreciation of the US dollar. The downturn in commodity prices over the month was broad-based, with falls in all the... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More of the same in the December WASDE There were no major surprises in the latest set of estimates published by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Projected 2017/18 ending stocks for the grains and soybeans were raised further... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does a flattening yield curve mean for gold? While a flattening US yield curve has, at times, been associated with a rising gold price, the relationship is far from perfect. Indeed, although we expect the curve to continue to flatten over the... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
