Precious Metals Update Gold shrugs off Fed rate hike Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold gained 1.6% following the Fed’s decision to hike US interest rates for the third time this year and the fifth time in this tightening cycle. The lack of... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities come off the boil Commodity indices took a tumble at the start of December, coinciding with a slight appreciation of the US dollar. The downturn in commodity prices over the month was broad-based, with falls in all the... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More of the same in the December WASDE There were no major surprises in the latest set of estimates published by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Projected 2017/18 ending stocks for the grains and soybeans were raised further... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does a flattening yield curve mean for gold? While a flattening US yield curve has, at times, been associated with a rising gold price, the relationship is far from perfect. Indeed, although we expect the curve to continue to flatten over the... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports jump China’s commodity import volumes rebounded strongly in November, after the October weakness. The data may have been boosted by holiday-related distortions but it also appears that policies to curtail... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are forecasts for US oil output too optimistic? The recent rise in prices makes a large jump in US oil production next year relatively certain. However, rising costs, fewer efficiency gains and maturing fields will start to weigh on growth towards... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Will India’s steel industry continue to boom? India has experienced a period of uninterrupted growth in steel production for more than a decade, unmatched by any other major producer. But the country faces challenges in creating a competitive... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s November PMIs diverge … again China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs continued to diverge in November, with the former rising and the latter falling. We tend to put more faith in the unofficial index which shows that... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Sentiment towards metals diverges Sentiment towards metals has diverged since the start of 2017. While investors have remained firmly bullish on precious metals, they have turned more bearish on industrial metals even as prices have... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Changes in UK tax will not affect oil prices Changes to the tax treatment of some North Sea oil and gas fields will no doubt be welcomed by the industry and could help to prevent production falling back over the next few years. However, we doubt... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is monetary policy becoming less relevant? The tightening of global monetary policy over the next few years represents a headwind to commodity prices, especially precious metals. However, the reduction in equilibrium interest rates over the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks suggest that demand is slowing Total exchange stocks of nearly all the metals have fallen since the start of the year, which goes some way to justifying the rally in prices. The exceptions are tin and copper inventories. However... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore vulnerable even without steel output cuts Government-mandated steel production cuts in China this winter will exacerbate the decrease in demand for iron ore resulting from a weak construction sector and a slowdown in economic growth. As such... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.) China’s October activity and investment data underpin our view that the economy started to slow in the second half of this year and point to softer growth in metals demand. 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil leads the pack Commodity indices have surged over the last month, driven by higher oil prices. This has led to a break in the usually close inverse relationship with the US dollar. The energy sub-index was the best... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in US coal output not down to Trump The revival in the US coal industry is due to a surge in demand from China and solid domestic consumption, rather than any changes to legislation. However, rising supply, slowing economic growth in... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read