Industrial Metals Update Real metals prices are high and have further to rise Compared to their pre-pandemic averages, metals prices are high even after adjusting for inflation. We think that as green transition-related demand increases and monetary easing gets underway, real... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Aluminium Production (Dec. & 2023) Global aluminium production growth slowed to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.9% in 2022. We think softening output growth in China will cause global growth to fall back again this year. 22nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Green demand to spur copper price gains in 2024 After a subdued 2023, we think the copper price will fare much better this year. We expect supply growth to moderate, while demand growth will be bolstered by the green transition. 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Energy prices are not that high in real terms Energy prices seem historically high at first glance. However, that is not strictly the case. After adjusting for inflation, oil and US natural gas prices are already at or below pre-pandemic levels... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Weak demand to keep lid on EU carbon price in 2024 The downward trend in the EU carbon price since early 2023 has been driven by lower demand for pollution permits on the back of industrial weakness and growth in cleaner energy sources. With energy... 17th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Why hasn’t the Middle East sparked an oil price rally? Perhaps surprisingly, the latest escalation in Middle East tensions has not prompted a surge in oil prices. We think this is because, so far, oil output is unaffected. Moreover, we suspect it also... 16th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports to hold firm, for now China’s commodity imports were generally strong in 2023 and while growth rates will probably slow this year, we expect volumes to remain high in the coming months. 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: refineries to help but not solve external strains Output from Nigeria’s oil refinery sector has been in terminal decline, inflating the fuel import bill at a time when the economy is already suffering from a shortage of hard currency. The new Dangote... 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs still underplaying commodity demand China PMI surveys suggest that the economy lost momentum in December, but we suspect that the surveys are not reflecting economic reality. Activity and import data all point to resilient commodity... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update COP28 & long-run energy demand The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Steel Production (Nov.) The monthly falls in China’s steel production continued in November, but output over the year is almost certain to be higher than in 2022. Production in India grew quickly and should remain strong... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) After hitting a new record in October, global aluminium production slipped back in November. We suspect that the new record will not be toppled in the coming months owing to power rationing in China... 20th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update A perfect storm at sea The attacks in the Red Sea are the third major disruption to maritime transport this year, alongside low water levels in the Panama Canal and collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Much will depend on... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Separating fact from myth about renewable capacity The target from COP28 to triple global renewable generating capacity this decade is encouragingly ambitious. But as our Climate Reporting Tools show, the goal will be easier to achieve in some... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Flood of LNG supply will push EU gas prices down Europe’s natural gas price will continue its downward trend in 2024-25 as more LNG supply enters the market. And while there may be some recovery in demand as prices fall, we think there has been a... 8th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Aside from oil, China’s imports on solid ground China’s commodity imports mostly rose in November, but there was a sharp drop in crude oil imports. We think that non-oil commodity import volumes will hold up in the coming months on the back of... 7th December 2023 · 2 mins read
