Commodities Update Grain pain is over – wheat prices will remain low Wheat prices have been in decline for most of the past two years. We think that they are now near their trough, but the prospect of another good global harvest in 2024/25 means that we shouldn’t see a... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices on shaky foundations US steelmakers are preparing for robust growth in steel demand over the next few years, however we think those expectations will fall flat. Steel demand from property construction is likely to fall... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs suggest an upturn in commodity demand China’s PMI surveys in March are consistent with some improvement in economic activity and solid commodities demand. We think that government stimulus will continue to boost economic activity in the... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Steel Production (Feb. 2024) The robust increase in global steel production since the beginning of the year probably has a bit further to run since there are few signs that the two largest producers – China and India – will slow... 22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) The drop in global aluminium production in February should be a blip now that output curbs in China’s Yunnan province due to power constraints have been lifted. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Lower US oil supply in 2025 to be offset elsewhere We expect global crude production to rise by around 2.5% in 2025 as the unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary supply cuts stretches all through next year. But non-OPEC+ oil producing nations will also play... 14th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Russia’s gas exports past nadir, crude to keep flowing The winner of Russia’s election may be a foregone conclusion but the outlook for its oil and gas sector isn’t. A tightening of sanctions is an ever-present risk and the outcome of the war is uncertain... 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up The preliminary China trade data released today suggest that China’s commodities demand was robust in the first two months of the year. Crude imports should stay elevated, but iron ore and coal... 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China NPC is pro-growth, but not enough to lift prices China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ kicking the can down the road Despite OPEC+’s decision to extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of June, we still forecast oil prices to drop back by end-2024. We continue to expect OPEC+ to raise output in the latter... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to stable commodity demand China’s PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing activity held steady in February and are consistent with stable, if unexciting, growth in commodity demand. That said, we continue to expect a near-term... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold prices will climb higher over the next few years We think that the gold price will rise in each of the next couple of years, driven by the Fed cutting rates a little quicker than is priced into markets, falling US Treasury yields and a softening US... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Energy Update North America electricity trade to grow Although the US’ trade in electricity with Canada and Mexico is small compared to its overall energy trade, it should grow as clean energy capacity rises and grid connections improve. Canada should... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tin up; we expect prices to rise Given the signs that cyclical and structural forces will raise tin demand this year, set against a backdrop of tightening supply due to the mining ban in Myanmar, we forecast the tin price to rise in... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Steel Production (Jan. 2024) The year-on-year contraction in global steel production in January masks a sizeable monthly increase in output in China and India. Production in both countries should grow further over the next few... 23rd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Carbon price not out of the woods yet This Update marks the launch of our EU carbon price forecasts and coverage, including an in-depth mini-series on key market and price dynamics, and an accompanying dashboard to track market drivers... 22nd February 2024 · 0 mins read
