Precious Metals Update Gold, geopolitics and the Fed We have raised our gold price forecast to reflect the current heightened geopolitical risk. We think the price will rise further next year as the limited fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict won’t... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will a “Dead Cow” become Argentina’s life saver? The Vaca Muerta shale formation will alleviate some of the pressure on Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position by substantially reducing the country’s gas import bill and raising oil export... 8th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up China’s import data for October indicated that its demand for commodities remains robust but we think that further growth in the next couple of months is likely to be modest. 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Approaching peak-pessimism for clean energy equities The underperformance of wind and solar equities since early 2021 has largely been driven by higher interest rates, which disproportionately affect the cost of renewables projects. But while the days... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs suggest metals prices to hold steady The PMI surveys released so far for China weakened in October with the manufacturing PMIs falling back into contractionary territory. We think China’s demand for commodities will be supported by... 1st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Why isn’t the oil market more worried? We think the cautious oil market reaction to the outbreak of conflict in Israel probably reflects the huge uncertainty about the eventual outcome, but also a somewhat lower “Middle East” risk premium. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update LNG poses risks for the EU but new supply on its way EU natural gas prices have risen in recent weeks highlighting that a reliance on LNG imports is not without risk. That said, prices should fall back next year as a significant amount of LNG export... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Argentina’s shale poised to rise regardless of elections Argentina’s oil and gas production growth has slowed sharply recently due to pipeline capacity constraints. New projects should ease these bottlenecks, and production should rise from 2024. Admittedly... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly How high can oil prices go? In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Commodities Weekly Wrap to clients of the Energy Service. It was generally a strong week for commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions have... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Nuclear power still very much in the energy mix After several years in a post-Fukushima wilderness, nuclear power’s ability to provide low-emission and reliable electricity generation has slowly brought it back into favour around the world. Several... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: raising oil output will be a long journey The reported deal that is close to being reached to lift US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in return for competitive elections would help to raise the country’s oil output from very depressed... 16th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Cobalt prices to drift lower through 2024 Cobalt is likely to keep its position as a leading battery metal for years to come, but its high cost compared to alternative metals means that cobalt demand won’t grow as fast as overall battery... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China's commodity demand remains rock solid China imported fewer key commodities in September than in August, but its underlying demand for commodities, especially fossil fuels, remains strong and is only likely to strengthen from here. 13th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Middle East instability threatens regional LNG exports The conflict between Hamas and Israel will negatively affect Israel’s natural gas exports. However, the bigger concern for global natural gas prices is the risk of the conflict spreading. In view of... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Why is China’s commodities demand so strong? China’s recent commodity demand has been stronger than might have been expected given the weakness of its economy and commodity-intensive property sector in particular. This partly reflects a step-up... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Ukraine’s grain exports will struggle to stay afloat The price of wheat and corn will stay historically high for now, as Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has re-ignited concerns about supply from Ukraine. We think that prices will... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read