Energy Update Oil and coal prices to fall, but gas to remain strong We think that differing outlooks for demand will cause the prices of energy commodities to diverge over the rest of this year, despite their recent close correlation. 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower production to support grains prices Adverse weather this year has prompted us to revise down our estimates of the forthcoming global grain and soybean harvests. Stocks remain at comfortable levels, but we have also nudged up our price... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Fed tightening to put a cap on gold prices in 2018 Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold edged higher following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike US interest rates for the second time this year. But we don’t think this is the start of a... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally won’t last The ongoing wage negotiations at several copper mines are likely to keep prices well supported in the short term. However, we think that growing supply and only subdued demand will weigh on copper... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weakness in China’s oil imports only temporary China’s commodity import volumes rebounded in May owing to a pick-up in demand for metals. However, imports of energy commodities remained weak. We still think that commodity import growth is likely... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver’s outperformance won’t last While a jump in US Treasury yields has weighed on the price of gold over the past month, the price of silver has rallied. However, we doubt that silver will outperform gold for long. 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Will the lead rally be sustained? Over the past month, the price of lead has surged. This appears to be the result of a clampdown on recycling plants in China, which has reduced scrap lead supply since the start of the year. However... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow again The dramatic surge in US oil output so far this year has weighed on the price of WTI and widened the Brent-WTI spread. But we still expect US production to grow strongly in 2018-19. An increase in... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Divergence with the dollar unlikely to last In the last month, commodity prices have risen or held steady, despite a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. We think that the long-run inverse relationship will be restored in the second half of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s May PMIs suggest solid economic growth China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs for May point to a firm economic performance and are broadly consistent with the gains in industrial metals and coal prices last month. However, we... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel unlikely to hold on to price gains Tighter supply and strong demand have led to a rapid drawdown of nickel exchange stocks and given a lift to prices. But with supply starting to pick up and more subdued demand growth, we expect the... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Waning demand for coal to weigh on prices Warmer weather, slower economic growth in China and the rise in renewable and natural gas-fired power generation should help to reverse the recent jump in demand for coal and reduce prices over the... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors become less positive on metals Investor sentiment in the metals markets has deteriorated since the start of 2018, although more so for precious metals than industrial. Some of the technical indicators that we monitor have recently... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update High oil prices threaten demand growth We expect global oil consumption to rise steadily this year on the back of strong economic growth. However, if oil prices remain around their current levels or rise further, consumption growth could... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How sustainable is the recent fall in gold prices? The recent fall has brought the price of gold close to our end-2018 forecast of $1,300. While Fed policy tightening is usually negative for gold prices, higher demand for inflation hedges and a weaker... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil shrugs off rising dollar The GSCI commodity price index has surged over the last month, despite the rise in the US dollar. However, the rise in the broad index is entirely due to the jump in oil prices – which was driven by... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
