Commodities Update Aluminium bears the brunt of US sanctions on Russia Aluminium is the only commodity which has been directly affected by the latest round of sanctions on Russia, but even there we think that the boost to prices will be temporary. Instead, the surge in... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Russian sanctions’ boost to aluminium to be short-lived The sanctions on Russian producer, Rusal, are likely to support aluminium prices in the short term. However, Russian output is unlikely to collapse. What’s more, higher prices will encourage... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Geopolitical tensions boost prices Commodity prices rebounded at the start of April on the back of concerns over US sanctions on Russia and escalating tensions in the Middle East, despite the dollar being flat. Indeed, only the... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices vulnerable to a shift in investor sentiment Near-record non-commercial net-long futures positions in the oil market mean that prices could fall sharply if investor sentiment sours. 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Tariff bark could be worse than its bite For now, there is optimism that ongoing negotiations between the US and China will prevent a significant escalation in trade tensions. However, there remains a risk of rising protectionism, which... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Subdued demand to weigh on copper The price of copper has already fallen back sharply but we think this is more about heightened geopolitical risk than fundamentals. The price may revive in the near term if risks start to fade, but... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Heavy industry unlikely to lift China’s PMI for long China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs diverged again in March. The easing of pollution controls on heavy industry gave a boost to the official index, but slower growth elsewhere weighed... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Time to buy gold? The price of gold has benefited from heightened geopolitical risk in recent weeks. While prices are likely to remain well supported in the short term as global trade worries see investors rotate out... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s imports start the year on a strong note Although China’s imports of most metals rose strongly in the first two months of 2018, other indicators imply weaker domestic demand, which could lead to lower volumes in the coming months. 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Jump in oil prices likely to be temporary Increasing tensions in the Middle East and expectations that OPEC will extend its output cuts have driven oil prices higher recently. However, even if President Trump reimposes sanctions on Iran... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Is the DRC’s new mining code a threat to EVs? The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’s decision to hike royalties on cobalt mining represents a threat to the electric vehicle industry and could accelerate the ongoing substitution with cheaper... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will the new Chinese crude contract matter for prices? In our view, the new yuan-denominated crude futures contract should have no long-term impact on oil prices, even if it becomes a major benchmark. At any rate, a history of extreme volatility in China... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc’s rally looks rusty Robust demand and constrained supply have pushed the price of zinc higher over the past year. But fundamentals have deteriorated sharply in recent months and point to substantially lower prices ahead. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold shrugs off Fed rate hike Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold gained 1.4% following the Fed’s decision to hike US interest rates for the sixth time in this tightening cycle. However, we think that the recent rally... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No need to fear the Fed The prospect of additional US rate hikes could weigh on commodity prices this year and will almost certainly lead to a lower gold price. But our negative outlook for industrial commodity prices is... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Robust trade growth to support oil demand Despite the risk of further protectionist measures by President Trump and retaliation by China and the EU, we think that growth in world trade is likely to remain strong this year, which should help... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
