Industrial Metals Update Investors are right to be bearish We think that the prices of industrial metals will drop in 2019, in part because we expect investor sentiment to remain weak owing to slower economic growth in China and the US. 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor China’s latest activity and investment data paint a mixed picture of metals demand but we expect growth in consumption to slow until mid-2019. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update US energy prices overshoot This week’s dramatic moves in US energy prices reflect underlying fundamentals to some extent. Indeed, we remain positive on the outlook for natural gas prices in 2019, but see little upside for oil... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Divergence in energy prices to continue In light of recent sharp energy price movements, it is worth re-iterating our outlook on prices. We expect that differing projections for demand and supply will prolong the deviation in the price of... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead looking for longer-term support A temporary cut in output from Nyrstar’s Port Pirie smelter will not stop lead prices falling further as auto sales are slowing and lead-acid batteries see market share eroded by electric cars. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Taking stock of our oil price forecast Following the recent 20% slump, the price of oil is now close to our end-year forecast and we expect prices to fall further in 2019 as growth in demand slows and supply remains ample. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update November WASDE was all about China At first glance, the USDA’s latest set of projections appeared bearish for the grains and soybeans markets. However, most of the upward revisions to stocks and supply can be explained by revisions to... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas to hold on to its gains We expect the average price of US natural gas to rise in 2019 on a combination of low stocks and strong growth in demand, both domestic and external. This will more than absorb steadily increasing... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Cobalt caught in a trap We think that cobalt prices will rebound, by approximately 30%, between now and mid-2019, aided by a temporary halt to cobalt sales and exports from a major operation in the DRC. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices likely to prove unsustainable We believe that the price of US steel is currently too high, despite the 25% tariff on imports, and that slower growth in demand and higher domestic supply should prompt prices to fall back in 2019. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Import demand proves resilient, for now China’s commodity import volumes generally held up well last month, despite the ongoing slowdown in broader economic activity. However, all the signs point to weaker import growth in the coming months... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil supply fears allayed for now The last-minute waivers on US sanctions granted to eight of Iran’s largest customers suggest supply in the oil market should be more than ample, underpinning our forecast of a further fall in oil... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q3 2018 World Gold Council Demand Trends After a lacklustre first half of the year, global gold demand rose in Q3, albeit marginally. We think that consumer demand may well remain soft in Q4, but the upturn in ETF holdings in October could... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to weak commodities demand The latest survey data out of China paint a subdued picture of economic growth and offer little support to the prices of industrial and energy commodities. What’s more, any policy stimulus to boost... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks to rise in 2019 Total exchange stocks for most industrial metals have declined year-to-date with cancelled warrants up in most cases, which implies strong demand. The major exception is tin. In 2019, we expect a... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead and aluminium differentials shouldn’t last The price of aluminium in Shanghai has been appreciably lower than on the LME for much of this year, while the reverse has been true for lead prices. Neither is sustainable and we think that global... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
