Commodities Update Key commodity calls for 2019 Slower global economic growth will prove too much of a headwind for most commodity prices in 2019. What’s more, investor sentiment towards risky assets more generally is likely to deteriorate. These... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The electric vehicles boom won’t boost nickel in 2019 In recent months, the price of nickel has plummeted as investor sentiment has waned on concerns about demand. We think that prices will drop in 2019 as growth in global supply remains strong and... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc futures are right to be in backwardation The price of zinc has fallen sharply since June but what is more remarkable is that the futures curve has shifted into a steep backwardation. We forecast that zinc prices will continue to drop in 2019... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slower growth in demand to weigh on oil prices We expect a combination of slower global GDP growth and persistent rises in US shale output to lead to lower oil prices in 2019. Our end-2019 forecast for Brent is now $55 per barrel ($60 previously). 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update No respite in sight for plummeting Chinese steel prices Chinese steel prices have slumped recently but with demand set to be weak over the coming months and less stringent pollution controls, we expect steel prices to drop by a further 20% over the next... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Domestic weakness in China curbs commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes softened last month, underpinning our view that slower growth in the broader economy will take its toll on China’s commodity demand and prices. The only exception was... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Palladium’s golden days may not return The price of palladium rose above that of gold earlier this week for the first time since 2002, but gold has returned to a premium today and we think this premium will grow as the palladium price... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to cheer in China’s PMIs China’s November survey data point to persistent weakness in economic activity, which will continue to be a factor weighing on the prices of commodities, particularly industrial metals. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trump-Xi truce provides some relief for commodities Mounting US protectionism, particularly towards China, has been a key factor weighing on commodity prices for much of this year. As such, news that China and the US are to resume talks provides some... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin demand battling to soldier on Despite dropping to a multi-year low recently, we think that tin prices will fall further over the next year as Chinese demand falters. However, this should mark a turning point for the tin price, not... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Investors to return to precious metals We think that the prices of precious metals, except palladium, will rise in 2019, in part because we expect an early end to Fed tightening and stronger safe-haven demand in the second half of the year... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi likely to push ahead with modest oil output cut The upcoming OPEC meeting is likely to result in Saudi Arabia agreeing to reduce its oil output. But we think that any cut will be at the more modest end of the spectrum as the authorities balance the... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil and industrial metals to struggle in 2019 The recent oil price crash has led some to ask if contagion might spread across commodities. However, the decline largely represented a catch-up with base metals and we think the latest drops may... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update A lot of hot air in the US natural gas market We expect that the combination of low stocks and strong demand growth will ensure that the average price of US natural gas will be higher in 2019 than in 2018, despite steadily increasing supply. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price falls too far, too fast Oil prices fell by 7-8% last Friday on market fears of oversupply, but we suspect that producers will start to withhold exports in the coming months, putting a floor under prices. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver surplus unlikely to last long The silver market has moved into its first meaningful surplus since 2010 as investor demand has plunged but we expect this will rebound next year, causing the surplus to dwindle and silver prices to... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
