Precious Metals Update Q4 & 2018 World Gold Council Demand Trends Gold demand from the official sector soared to its highest level since 1967 last year as central banks became increasingly keen to diversify from dollar assets. But, we expect the big story for 2019... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update European coal prices to remain grounded Weaker demand, the ongoing transition away from coal and rising supply from Russia will lead to lower European coal prices in 2019. We forecast that the price of Rotterdam coal will fall from $80 per... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update US sanctions PDVSA, next few months critical The decision by the US to impose sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, will lead to a large loss of export earnings in the next few months. If Maduro can cling on to power during... 29th January 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices unlikely to stay elevated for long In light of a tragic accident in Brumadinho, we are revising up our iron ore price forecasts for this year and next in anticipation of weaker-than-expected Brazilian output. However, we are still of... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Too soon to write off Venezuela The received wisdom in the oil market is that the latest political turmoil in Venezuela is positive for oil prices as it could lead to further disruptions to the country’s oil supply. But a change of... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper prices to stand firm this year Subdued levels of supply growth combined with increasing global demand will ensure that copper remains in a substantial market deficit and that prices will hold up well in 2019. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lower costs, lower prices for aluminium in 2019 We think aluminium prices will drop from around $1,865 per tonne at present to $1,750 by end-2019 due to rising output and falling costs at a time of sluggish demand. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybeans not out of the woods yet The trade talks between the US and China last week ended on a positive note, but the lack of any details dashed hopes of imminent relief for the ailing US soybean sector. Indeed, even if a deal is... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil bucks the negative trend in China’s trade data China’s commodity import volumes were generally weak in December. Admittedly, oil imports rose strongly but this was probably opportunistic buying on the back of the slump in price rather than a sign... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG prices to follow coal and oil downwards Rising global supply, softer demand and lower prices of other forms of energy will weigh on the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2019. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New gold and silver price forecasts We remain bullish on gold and silver prices and have revised up our end-2019 forecasts to $1,350 per ounce and $17.50 respectively, as we expect both metals to attract investors seeking safe havens. 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update A downward revision to the 2019 oil price forecast Changes to our wider global macroeconomic and market forecasts have prompted us to re-assess the outlook for oil prices. We now expect slower growth in global demand and rising US production to return... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weaker demand to weigh on Chinese imports After strong growth in 2018, we think that China’s imports of most industrial metals will be softer in 2019, reflecting slower economic growth and weaker domestic demand. 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update One small step … China has announced a (small) increase in its reported official sector gold holdings for the first time in over two years, but regardless of whether this is repeated in the near future, central bank... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs dampen any new year optimism Commodity prices are mostly falling on the first day of trading in 2019 as China’s December PMIs showed that the economy finished 2018 on a weak note. While the authorities are loosening policy, we... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices to run out of steam Slower economic growth in China, increasing production and the continuing shift towards natural gas and renewable energy for power generation will weigh on the price of coal in 2019. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
