Energy Update

North America electricity trade to grow

Although the US’ trade in electricity with Canada and Mexico is small compared to its overall energy trade, it should grow as clean energy capacity rises and grid connections improve. Canada should...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Tin up; we expect prices to rise

Given the signs that cyclical and structural forces will raise tin demand this year, set against a backdrop of tightening supply due to the mining ban in Myanmar, we forecast the tin price to rise in...

28th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Steel Production (Jan. 2024)

The year-on-year contraction in global steel production in January masks a sizeable monthly increase in output in China and India. Production in both countries should grow further over the next few...

23rd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Energy Update

Carbon price not out of the woods yet

This Update marks the launch of our EU carbon price forecasts and coverage, including an in-depth mini-series on key market and price dynamics, and an accompanying dashboard to track market drivers...

22nd February 2024 · 0 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Jan.)

Global aluminium production was unchanged in January compared to December. This reinforces our view that production growth will soften this year.

20th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Europe's aluminium industry not dead yet

Higher aluminium prices and lower production costs should incentivise Europe’s smelters to restart some production in both 2024 and 2025. The introduction of CBAM in 2026 means prices will then...

15th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Energy Update

US natural gas price collapses, revival to come by Q4

The precipitous drop in US natural gas prices won’t persist for the rest of the year. Prices should rise by Q4 as US production growth slows and LNG exports rise.

14th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

West Africa: cocoa prices to offset hit from poor harvest

The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices...

14th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Wave of supply will keep nickel prices low

We think the huge expansion in nickel supply will keep the market balance in a sizeable surplus this year. Accordingly, we don’t think the price will muster a recovery from its recent slump.

12th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

Global sugar rush to slowly fade away

After a sweet start to the year, sugar prices should take on a more sour note over the rest of 2024. Prices will fall back as El Niño comes to an end and the supply outlook improves but any relaxation...

8th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

US natural gas prices to stay low in 2024

We have revised down our forecast for US natural gas prices this year, as the outlook for domestic supply has improved. Note: Join our special online briefing on Middle East conflict, shipping...

2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Some positives in China’s PMI data

China PMI surveys showed some signs of strengthening in January. But we still think they understate the strength of metals demand, which we expect to hold up fairly well this year. Note: Join our...

1st February 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Will Saudi shift tack on oil policy?

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output significantly over the past year or so but that hasn’t prevented global oil prices from falling. Despite Aramco’s announcement today that it is postponing plans to...

30th January 2024 · 5 mins read

JODI Energy Demand Monitor

JODI Energy Demand Monitor

JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption paint a nuanced picture of global energy demand. While oil demand growth slowed towards the end of last year, consumption of natural gas was...

29th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Steel Production (Dec. & 2023)

Global steel production reportedly stagnated last year. We think it probably will again in 2024 as a drop in production in China should offset increasing output by most other producers.

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read