Commodities Update Trade truce optimism to prove short-lived In theory, last weekend’s trade truce between the US and China is a positive for commodity prices. But the muted market reaction suggests some scepticism. We tend to agree. In fact, we suspect that... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs do not bode well for commodity prices Another month of weak PMI readings confirms a renewed slowdown in China’s economy. While optimism surrounding the US-China trade truce is currently buoying commodity prices, we think slower growth in... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper not to come a cropper Despite rising trade tensions and soft demand growth, we think that the price of copper will be resilient in the coming months and rally thereafter due to supply constraints. 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (May) Gold imports in India and China diverged in May, as temporary factors propped up consumer buying in the former, while demand in the latter remained sluggish. But we expect import demand for gold in... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Assessing the risk to oil supply of US-Iran tensions Concerns about a shortfall in global oil supply have resurfaced as a result of the escalation in geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. But we think there are four key reasons why the risk to supply... 25th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The writing is on the wall for Chinese steel Chinese steel rebar prices have been bolstered recently by surprisingly resilient construction activity, but we expect demand to falter in the coming months and prices to fall sharply. 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore over $100 per tonne will prove temporary Iron ore prices have soared on the back of disruptions to supply and strong growth in demand from China’s steel sector. We think that neither will last. Consequently, we expect the price of iron ore... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A poor harvest unlikely to boost corn prices further At first glance, the USDA’s latest set of projections appear bullish for the price of corn. However, we think that much of this is already priced in and as such we are not changing our corn price... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US-China trade war prompts cuts to our forecasts We have now factored into our forecasts a ratcheting-up of trade tensions between the US and China over the next year. Given this, we have shaved our projections for the prices of some metals. However... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Implications for oil of an escalation in the trade war We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to cheer in China’s May trade data China’s commodity import volumes were subdued last month, which is consistent with our view of soft Chinese domestic demand and downward pressure on commodity prices. Moreover, while there was no... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The US steel price bloodbath is not over yet US steel prices have tumbled by more than a third over the past year and we think that a weaker US economy, combined with rising imports, means prices should fall by a further 15% over the next year. 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold has further to rise in 2019 The combination of a scaling back of US interest rate expectations, a struggling S&P 500, and the dollar coming off the boil has lifted the price of gold to a three-month high during the past week... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand looks weak Subdued survey data suggest that China’s economy is likely to soften this quarter, which underpins our generally bearish view on industrial commodities prices in the coming months. 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rare earths prices could get a shot in the arm China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow in 2019 The relative scarcity of Brent crude and an abundance of WTI have led to a persistently wide price spread between the two oils. However, we expect enhanced pipeline capacity in the US and somewhat... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
