Commodities Update What lacklustre global growth means for commodities We have long expected that sluggish global demand will weigh on commodity prices in 2019. That said, recent indicators have led some to suggest that global growth may be bottoming out. But we disagree... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update LME lead prices to fall, but still outperform The price of lead has been lower on the LME than on the Shanghai exchange for more than a year now and it has fallen this year while the prices of other metals, most notably its sister metal zinc... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A higher oil price forecast, but big picture unchanged We retain our long-held view that the price of oil will fall this year owing to weak global growth, further gains in US oil output and a rise in investor risk aversion. However, the scale of recent... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally: too far, too soon Copper prices have approached 10-month highs recently on supply woes and optimism that growth in China will rebound, but we think that this rally will reverse as China’s recovery falls short of... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity exports boom in March China’s commodity imports were generally weak in the first quarter of 2019, mirroring the slowdown in the wider economy. In contrast, commodity exports surged. We suspect that imports will remain... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does oil at $70 mean for our price forecast? Most of the excess supply in the oil market has now disappeared as a result of the voluntary and involuntary output cuts, notably by OPEC member states. However, we expect higher prices to encourage... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices could drop sharply We expect the Chinese price of steel rebar to drop by more than a fifth this year as a cooling property sector dents demand. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Production woes delay iron ore price drop A tropical cyclone and a burst dam will mean lower iron ore output from the three largest producers this year, which we believe will swing the market into a deficit. In our view, this deficit will... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oversupply to act as a lid on the price of LNG The recent plunge in the spot price of Asia liquefied natural gas (LNG) in part reflects warmer-than average winter temperatures, but there is a more structural problem in the form of excess supply... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Still grounds for caution, despite stronger China PMIs The strength of the latest China survey data may signal that growth there has passed its low-point. But we think there are still reasons to be cautious, with negative implications for most commodity... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Future SPR buying to have little impact on oil prices We estimate that strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) in India and China are at record highs and will continue to increase in the years ahead. In contrast, we think that US reserves will slide... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are there lessons to be learnt from 2012-13? The spike in oil prices in 2018 followed a similar pattern to the spike in 2012. As such, the price trend in 2012-13 can perhaps tell us something about the likely direction of prices this year. To be... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices to be blown off course While dwindling exchange stocks have helped to boost the price of zinc in recent months, we think that prices are set to drop appreciably later this year as increased mine output finally starts to... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil stocks are unlikely to fall sharply in 2019 The guiding principle behind OPEC’s recent production cuts is to reduce global oil stocks and to put prices on a firmer footing. In the near term, stocks may decline given that OPEC is now producing... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver prices likely to rebound Despite weaker industrial demand, we expect silver prices to rally by more than 10% this year as safe-haven demand returns and mine production falters. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak industrial production points to lower prices The recent upturn in most commodity prices appears at odds with the negative trend in global manufacturing. Of course, supply factors could explain the divergence, and probably do in the case of oil... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
