Industrial Metals Update Back to normality for iron ore Iron ore prices have plunged by a sixth so far in August and we think that rebounding output and slower Chinese demand growth will mean that prices will fall by a further 20% to $80 per tonne by end... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Metals in firing line of latest US tariffs Commodity prices plummeted yesterday in a knee-jerk reaction to the news of more US tariffs on Chinese goods. We have argued for some time that the US-China trade war was likely to escalate, and it... 2nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Q2 & H1 2019 World Gold Council Demand Trends Central bank buying and ETF inflows underpinned robust demand for gold in the first half of 2019. While we think that strong official sector buying will continue, ETFs may start to see outflows as... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A flood of LNG to keep a lid on EU natural gas prices In this Update we are launching our coverage of the European TTF natural gas price. In short, we think that surging global supply of liquefied natural gas will keep EU markets amply supplied over the... 1st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs still point to weakness ahead China’s official and unofficial PMIs both rose in July, but they remain consistent with a renewed slowdown in economic activity, which will be a key factor weighing on commodity prices later this year... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update What a difference two decades make … The ending of the Central Bank Gold Agreement signals that worries about central bank gold sales are firmly behind us. In fact, central bank buying is now a significant prop rather than a headwind to... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Stronger biodiesel demand to bump up palm oil prices We think that the price of palm oil (PO) will rise a touch this year and pick up strongly in 2020 primarily on the back of stronger demand growth, which will shift the market into a deficit. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Surge in the Baltic Dry Index is an iron ore story The latest rally in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has more to do with developments in the iron ore market than trends in world trade. As such, we think that the index will fall back as the iron ore trade... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Why the fundamentals still matter for base metals The rise of speculative investment in base metals has resulted in high levels of overall price correlation. Beyond this, copper seems to provide a fairly reliable gauge of the general direction of... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Palladium’s blue sky rally to cloud over The price of palladium has surged amid higher demand for the metal from the Chinese auto sector, due to the ‘Blue Sky Protection Plan’, and investor buying. But our in-house demand proxy suggests the... 19th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports slide further China’s trade data for June painted a fairly downbeat picture of its demand for commodities. Given that we expect the Chinese economy to slow further over the coming months, a pick-up in China’s... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Little to galvanise investors to buy zinc We expect refined zinc output to grow at its fastest pace for nine years in 2019 and this, combined with ailing demand, suggests zinc prices should continue to fall to our end-2019 forecast of $2,300... 12th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ will not succeed in lowering crude stocks We think that the OPEC+ production cuts will fail to reduce global crude stocks. Instead, we expect soft demand growth and rising global supply, particularly from the US, to push stocks higher in the... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Low exchange stocks not a problem, for now … As demand fears have taken centre stage, persistently low exchange stocks have stayed under the radar. We think this is unlikely to change this year. But in 2020, looser monetary conditions and rising... 11th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The ABC of aluminium restarts We believe that the restarts at Alunorte, Becancour and in China will provide additional downward pressure on the price of aluminium. This, coupled with a weak demand backdrop, means that we expect... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Why gold prices have risen too far, too fast In the last month, a slew of events sparked gold’s strongest rally in nearly three years. We have not changed our long-held view that lacklustre global growth and a tumble in equity markets will keep... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
