Commodities Update

Gold jewellery to lose its lustre under high prices

Gold jewellery demand has been highly sensitive to price changes in the past and so will come under pressure from the current backdrop of record high gold prices. Income growth in key markets will...

17th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Update

EU carbon price has further to fall

The ~10% fall in EU carbon prices since the end of May has mirrored a similar-sized fall in European natural gas prices, and we forecast both to fall by a further 25-30% by year-end. That said, the...

17th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

China’s metals overcapacity to bear down on prices

While the debate around China’s manufacturing overcapacity has centred around politically sensitive topics such as electric vehicles, its industrial metals sector is no exception. Whereas the focus of...

11th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Injecting some nuance into high hopes for hydrogen

Hydrogen could play a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking and be a boon for countries and regions that are well placed to produce a surplus of renewable power...

10th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non...

17th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Peak oil debate slightly misses the point

The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only...

14th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

US energy security to impede its energy transition

The US economy has persistently outperformed its peers for over a century, and as our Spotlight series argues, will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. More recently, the US has also...

13th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Energy Update

The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand

The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a...

12th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Attention turns towards the return of La Niña

A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Energy Update

OPEC+ to turn on the taps, oil prices to fall in 2025

At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed through and that output...

4th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards

The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Iran’s succession plans unlikely to fix economic woes

The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

US shale boom approaching a peak

Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Copper price upsurge will not be sustained

The surge in copper prices today, to a record high of over $5/lb in trading on the New York commodities exchange (COMEX), is the latest twist in the eye-popping market rally and leaves prices looking...

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read