Commodities Update

What to make of Saudi Arabia’s oil market plans?

Today’s news that Saudi Arabia will proceed with unwinding its voluntary oil output cuts from December does not change our thinking on the oil market balance; we still expect the market to be in a...

26th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

New China stimulus won’t lift commodity demand

While the announcement of new stimulus measures by Chinese officials coincided with increases in many commodity prices, the package does not materially alter the outlook for China’s commodity demand...

25th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

Weaker demand for coal set to cool prices in 2025

The imminent closure of the UK’s last coal power plant is a further reminder that thermal coal’s days in Europe are numbered. In Asia, coal will remain a major source of power for many years to come...

23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Grain prices set to fall (if La Niña doesn’t get in the way)

While media attention has been on the soaring prices of coffee and cocoa, the prices of many grains have slid lower since the start of the year. We think that prices will fall further by the end of...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi between a rock and a hard place on oil policy

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output aggressively in the past two years but this has failed to prevent a slide in the Kingdom’s oil revenues. Officials are facing a tough choice over what to do next and...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Update

Thoughts on the oil market sell-off

The sell-off in oil markets so far in September, which gathered pace on Tuesday, has largely been driven by market concerns over demand. Although investors are correct to be worried about the...

11th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Is gold priced for perfection?

With a long and varied list of supportive drivers to choose from, we have raised our end-2025 gold price forecast to $2,750 per oz. But even though we now forecast gold prices to end next year about...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Cracks in oil demand to put OPEC+ to the test

The latest drop in oil prices, coupled with our expectation for global demand to remain weak, will make it practically impossible for OPEC+ to increase output while keeping Brent crude prices above...

4th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Recycling’s role in securing critical minerals and metals

China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way...

21st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire

The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region...

19th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas

Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation...

12th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

China, not a US slowdown, the key for industrial metals

Following another leg down in industrial metals prices, this time due to growing worries about a US recession and the broader financial market carnage, we still think that prices will fall further...

7th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Sell-off in oil markets has gone too far

The sharp fall in oil prices over the past week shows that fears of a US recession have so far outweighed concerns about conflict in the Middle East. But we think that oil prices have fallen too far...

6th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict

The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to...

29th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Olympic medals to lose their shine before long

The start of the Paris Olympic Games today suggests that there will be renewed interest in gold, silver and bronze. We suspect that athletes will be disappointed by the fact that the Olympic medals...

26th July 2024 · 3 mins read