Industrial Metals Update Recent price rally to boost aluminium output this year Global aluminium production rose in January. And with LME and ShFE prices near multi-year highs, we expect further gains in production this year, which will ultimately weigh on prices. 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update We expect commodities to underperform US equities Although we expect oil prices to rise a bit further this year, we doubt that we are in the early phase of a new “super cycle” in commodities. In fact, we project that the returns from commodities will... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metal imports: three trends to keep an eye on With the first batch of Chinese trade data for 2021 not due for another few weeks, this Update outlines the key developments to look out for. Overall, we expect imports of refined metal to fall back... 17th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US lumber prices to fall back from lofty heights We think that slower growth in US housing starts and increased supply will weigh on the price of US lumber over the coming quarters. That said, prices are likely to remain elevated relative to past... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tin’s rally to fizzle out by end-2021 Supply disruptions and strong electronics demand have lifted the tin price from its virus-induced lows. But we anticipate that a switch in consumer spending away from goods towards services once... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to make further gains Recent market moves have led us to revise up our end-2021 oil price forecast. But our story remains the same: one of resurgent demand later this year at a time of constrained supply. 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Demand to be primary driver of lower iron ore price Despite our relatively conservative forecast of supply growth, we still think that the price of iron ore will fall sharply this year owing to slower growth in China’s demand. 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Just another spell of volatility for the silver price Many media reports have linked silver’s recent price volatility to last week’s targeted buying of a handful of small US equities by retail investors. But we reckon that it marks just another bout of... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update End of stockpiling bonanza to hold back oil prices An often-overlooked factor supporting oil prices last year was the surge in stockpiling by China and India. But given the rebound in prices since then, and how much inventories have now risen, we... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Physical demand to bolster gold prices in 2021 Despite a surge in gold prices last year, physical demand for gold fell precipitously. But we think that a brighter economic outlook will boost consumer demand this year and help to prop up the gold... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Metals demand to hold up, despite weaker China PMIs The latest fall in China’s manufacturing PMI readings is a further sign that its economy is slowing. Nevertheless, activity there, and elsewhere in Asia, remains strong and we think that it will hold... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Animal feed consumption to increase Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty, we expect that global demand for meat and animal feeds, such as corn and soybeans, will rise over the next few years. 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to get a kick from vaccine rollouts We think that coffee prices will be among the few agricultural commodity prices to rise in 2021, not least because a relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions should boost out-of-home consumption. 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Weighing up the prospects for US oil production Higher prices and a backlog of uncompleted wells should ensure that US crude oil production edges up slowly over the next couple of years. But with many of the challenges facing the sector still... 27th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Agricultural price rally to go into reverse by end-year We think that the surge in many agricultural commodity prices is somewhat overdone. Although ending stocks for the major grains and soybeans will be lower in the year ahead, they will still be... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update New SA virus variant unlikely to affect PGM supply Despite the new South African coronavirus variant, it appears that PGM production in the country will hold up well, for now, since the virus-containment measures are not as severe. 14th January 2021 · 3 mins read
