Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dependence on Australian iron ore set to decline In the short-run, China has no choice but to grit its teeth and keep buying Australian iron ore, even as bilateral ties continue to fray. But this dependence will diminish over time thanks to... 26th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Fundamentals, not regulation, to drive iron ore lower While China’s announcement that it will crack down on speculation and market irregularities has taken some of the froth out of the iron ore market in recent weeks, we think the price of iron ore will... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Strong demand to keep the Pacific coal price high The price of Pacific coal has surged to just over $100 per tonne for the first time since 2019. We think that the price will remain elevated for the rest of this year in large part owing to strong... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Chip shortages to dent auto industry PGM demand The recent disruption to global auto production stemming from ongoing semiconductor microchip shortages poses a downside risk to our price forecasts for platinum and palladium. In this Update, we map... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to disregard US dollar strength The recent depreciation in the US dollar has helped to boost commodity prices. But while we expect a stronger dollar to weigh on most commodity prices later this year, we think that oil prices will... 20th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Deal or no deal, Iran’s oil output set to rise this year A revival of the nuclear deal with Iran would pave the way for sanctions to be lifted, boosting the country’s oil production and weighing on prices. By contrast, while we still expect Iranian output... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s FYP points to lower global agricultural prices There are three overarching themes present in the agriculture document associated with China’s 14th Five-Year Plan – improving food security, continuing with the modernisation of the rural economy and... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports are on the way down China’s commodity imports fell back in April compared with a month earlier. This chimes with our view that imports of industrial commodities into China will come off the boil as economic growth there... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread likely to remain narrow We think that the absence of pipeline capacity constraints, a strong recovery in US oil demand, and increased output from OPEC+ members will all help to ensure that the Brent-WTI price spread remains... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Strong physical demand won’t stop gold prices falling Recent data have highlighted the strength of the rebound in physical demand for gold, especially in India and China. But we don’t think this poses much of a risk to our forecast for the gold price to... 30th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities We think that commodities & US equities will diverge While commodities and US equities often move in the same direction, this is not always the case. We expect poor returns from commodities over the next few years, but reasonable returns from US... 29th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Lumber prices to be cut down to size Even though we expect lumber demand to hold up well for some time, we still think that a rebound in supply will lead to a sharp fall in the price of US lumber over the next eighteen months. 20th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China trade: how are our predictions stacking up? The latest China trade data show that ore imports are rebounding, though scrap imports remain subdued. Meanwhile, imports of refined copper have seen a renewed surge. Nevertheless, we continue to... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Corn price rally to run out of steam The ongoing revival in global demand growth together with constrained global supply means that the price of corn is likely to hold onto most of its recent gains for some time. That said, we think that... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity trade: cutting through the noise China’s imports of key industrial commodities point to ongoing strength in domestic demand. But the bigger picture is that import volumes remain well below last year’s peaks, and we expect growth in... 13th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Weaker European demand won’t derail our oil forecast While we have revised down our oil price forecast for Q2 and Q3 this year in response to the OPEC+ decision to ease production cuts, we still think a rebound in global demand will help push oil prices... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
