Commodities Update OPEC impasse: what next? The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC... 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Detailed China trade data highlight supply risks The breakdown of China’s trade data for May shows that the recovery in imports of scrap and tin ore has hit a few stumbling blocks. Were these issues to persist, they could help to put a floor under... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities China PMIs herald a period of slower growth China’s June survey data show softer growth in activity and supports our forecast that economic growth will slow from here, which will weigh on the prices of most commodities, especially the metals. 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update We still think gold will lose its shine After rallying from April onwards, the price of gold has dropped back in recent weeks. We expect the price of gold to fall further over the next couple of years as long-dated US real yields climb. 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Making sense of the rise in exchange stocks Exchange stocks of base metals have risen this year, which usually suggests that markets are well supplied. But much of the recent build in stocks has been opportunistic and driven by financial... 29th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Rising production to take the sizzle out of Henry Hub Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large... 28th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Timberrrrrrrr... Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive. 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lead has its uses, for now Lead demand should bounce back this year, despite the shortage of semiconductor chips which is currently curtailing global vehicle production. However, we think a simultaneous recovery in lead supply... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil demand to rise, but it won’t stop prices falling Global oil demand looks to have held up much better so far in 2021 than during 2020, despite a resurgence of COVID infections in many parts of the world. We expect strong oil demand growth to continue... 17th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Higher oil production to weigh on prices in 2022 Higher production from OPEC+ member states and in the Americas means that global oil production is set to rise sharply over the next eighteen months. This is the reason why we expect oil prices to... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Restocking boost to LNG prices to fade soon After rising (and falling) sharply at the start of the year, Asia LNG prices have started to push higher again recently. This latest rise seems to have been driven by a rebuilding of stocks, which... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Sugar no longer in a sweet spot Even after accounting for a fall in Brazilian production and a rise in global demand, we still expect the size of the global sugar market surplus to increase in 2021/22, which will weigh on prices. 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s iron and copper imports to fall further China’s imports of industrial commodities, particularly iron ore and unwrought copper, eased back in May. We expect import volumes of both these commodities to fall further in the coming months as... 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs may be as good as it gets The key takeaways from China’s May survey data are that while demand remains robust, supply shortages are leading to inventory drawdowns and price inflation. The data are broadly positive for... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices have further to fall We think that the prices of wheat, corn and soybeans will decline over the next six months owing to a rebound in global supply and slower demand growth in China. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Calling time on the rally in US steel prices Limited domestic supply, expensive imports and strong growth in demand have fuelled the rally in US steel prices. But with supply set to improve, at a time of softer growth in demand, prices should... 26th May 2021 · 2 mins read
