Commodities Update Shift in spending could hit demand for commodities Although world trade volumes are likely to hold up for a while yet, a reversal of some of the shift in spending patterns caused by the pandemic is likely to weigh on commodity demand. This is another... 8th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Jump in China commodity imports a flash in the pan China’s imports of key commodities rose almost across the board in August, but we doubt that this is the start of a new upwards trend. Instead, with many of the factors that had boosted demand now... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc set to lose its shine After climbing to multi-year highs in May, the zinc price has stayed strong, with much less volatility than its counterparts. However, we feel weaker economic growth in China and US tapering of... 6th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China aluminium output: how worried should we be? Aluminium prices have recently been boosted by a series of supply outages in China. But unlike Chinese steel production, where declines have been driven largely by government policy which looks here... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs support our forecast of lower metals prices The China PMI data for August continue to suggest that commodity demand in the world’s largest consumer is coming off the boil. As a result, the wedge between industrial metals prices and the China... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update A few points to make on extreme weather events Some of our forecasts for commodity prices this year have been blown off course by extreme weather events. As economists we cannot pretend to have insight into future weather patterns, but we can... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tide is turning against steel production in China The government in China has stepped up measures to tackle pollution and excess capacity in the domestic steel sector over the past few months. This adds weight to our view that steel production, and... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Cooling Chinese growth to weigh on metal prices China’s latest activity data are further evidence of a slowdown in its economy. This aligns with our view that industrial metals demand will soften in the year ahead, putting downward pressure on... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Growth in US oil production to remain sluggish While we expect both drilling activity and oil production in the US to pick up slightly over the next year or so, we doubt it will return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. This should keep the... 11th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Lower China commodity imports here to stay The latest trade data out of China adds to the evidence that demand growth in the world’s key commodity consumer is slowing. This supports our view that the broad-based rally in commodity prices from... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities US biofuel mandates unlikely to boost corn prices A decision by the Biden administration to increase US biofuel mandates in 2021 and 2022 has the potential to be a gamechanger for corn demand. However, we think that this is unlikely, which is one... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to weaker metals demand China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Sky-high European gas prices unlikely to be sustained We think a reversal of the factors that have fuelled the recent surge in European natural gas prices, namely high LNG prices, constrained supply and depleted stocks, will bring prices back down to... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Higher OPEC+ production to weigh on oil prices The OPEC+ agreement, signed yesterday, should help to stabilise oil prices and we expect Brent crude to trade in a narrow band of between $70 and 75 per barrel over next six months. But we expect... 19th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Beginning of the end for copper rally After reaching an all-time high in May, the price of copper has since come off the boil. And we think it will fall further over the next eighteen months or so, as a combination of weaker economic... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities China’s industrial metals imports to weaken further China’s imports of most industrial commodities continued to fall in June. We expect import volumes of near all commodities, but especially the industrial metals, to ease further in the months ahead as... 13th July 2021 · 2 mins read
