Energy Update Restocking boost to LNG prices to fade soon After rising (and falling) sharply at the start of the year, Asia LNG prices have started to push higher again recently. This latest rise seems to have been driven by a rebuilding of stocks, which... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Sugar no longer in a sweet spot Even after accounting for a fall in Brazilian production and a rise in global demand, we still expect the size of the global sugar market surplus to increase in 2021/22, which will weigh on prices. 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s iron and copper imports to fall further China’s imports of industrial commodities, particularly iron ore and unwrought copper, eased back in May. We expect import volumes of both these commodities to fall further in the coming months as... 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs may be as good as it gets The key takeaways from China’s May survey data are that while demand remains robust, supply shortages are leading to inventory drawdowns and price inflation. The data are broadly positive for... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices have further to fall We think that the prices of wheat, corn and soybeans will decline over the next six months owing to a rebound in global supply and slower demand growth in China. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Calling time on the rally in US steel prices Limited domestic supply, expensive imports and strong growth in demand have fuelled the rally in US steel prices. But with supply set to improve, at a time of softer growth in demand, prices should... 26th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dependence on Australian iron ore set to decline In the short-run, China has no choice but to grit its teeth and keep buying Australian iron ore, even as bilateral ties continue to fray. But this dependence will diminish over time thanks to... 26th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Fundamentals, not regulation, to drive iron ore lower While China’s announcement that it will crack down on speculation and market irregularities has taken some of the froth out of the iron ore market in recent weeks, we think the price of iron ore will... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Strong demand to keep the Pacific coal price high The price of Pacific coal has surged to just over $100 per tonne for the first time since 2019. We think that the price will remain elevated for the rest of this year in large part owing to strong... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Chip shortages to dent auto industry PGM demand The recent disruption to global auto production stemming from ongoing semiconductor microchip shortages poses a downside risk to our price forecasts for platinum and palladium. In this Update, we map... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to disregard US dollar strength The recent depreciation in the US dollar has helped to boost commodity prices. But while we expect a stronger dollar to weigh on most commodity prices later this year, we think that oil prices will... 20th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Deal or no deal, Iran’s oil output set to rise this year A revival of the nuclear deal with Iran would pave the way for sanctions to be lifted, boosting the country’s oil production and weighing on prices. By contrast, while we still expect Iranian output... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s FYP points to lower global agricultural prices There are three overarching themes present in the agriculture document associated with China’s 14th Five-Year Plan – improving food security, continuing with the modernisation of the rural economy and... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports are on the way down China’s commodity imports fell back in April compared with a month earlier. This chimes with our view that imports of industrial commodities into China will come off the boil as economic growth there... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread likely to remain narrow We think that the absence of pipeline capacity constraints, a strong recovery in US oil demand, and increased output from OPEC+ members will all help to ensure that the Brent-WTI price spread remains... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Strong physical demand won’t stop gold prices falling Recent data have highlighted the strength of the rebound in physical demand for gold, especially in India and China. But we don’t think this poses much of a risk to our forecast for the gold price to... 30th April 2021 · 4 mins read