Energy Update Mexico’s oil export cuts won’t damage global supply Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Metals prices: a genuine breakout or overoptimism? In a mixed week for commodity prices, copper topped $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the latest in what has been a rip-roaring start to the year for non-ferrous... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Japan’s LNG demand to sink; Korea’s to fall more slowly A resurgent nuclear power sector in Japan and a continuously growing one in South Korea coupled with an expansion in renewable power capacities will ensure both countries’ LNG demand will fall... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Further falls in store for iron ore amid falling demand This year’s falls in iron ore prices are likely to have been a dress rehearsal for what's ahead. Our China team’s forecast for the property sector to halve by the end of the decade does not bode well... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Russian metal ban won’t rock the boat We think that any impact from the suspension of trading of Russian metal on the LME and CME is likely to be muted, given that trade flows have already shifted markedly and it is unlikely to impact... 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Chinese gold craze likely to unwind later this year We think the price of gold will ease back from current record highs by end-2024, but falling US Treasury yields and some softness in the US dollar will keep the price elevated. Similarly, we expect... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A firm start to the year for China’s commodity imports China’s energy and industrial metal imports were generally strong in the first quarter. We expect them to hold up well in the coming months as fiscal stimulus continues to support construction... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China property contraction to hit metals prices hard In light of our China team’s new non-consensus view that an aggressive slowdown in property sector construction seems almost inevitable in the years ahead, we have revised our price forecasts. We now... 10th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Tentative signs of coal’s demise in China in 2024 A resurgence in hydropower in China this year combined with the continued rapid expansion of its wind, solar and nuclear power capabilities may pave the way for 2024 to mark the start of a steady... 10th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Grain pain is over – wheat prices will remain low Wheat prices have been in decline for most of the past two years. We think that they are now near their trough, but the prospect of another good global harvest in 2024/25 means that we shouldn’t see a... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices on shaky foundations US steelmakers are preparing for robust growth in steel demand over the next few years, however we think those expectations will fall flat. Steel demand from property construction is likely to fall... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs suggest an upturn in commodity demand China’s PMI surveys in March are consistent with some improvement in economic activity and solid commodities demand. We think that government stimulus will continue to boost economic activity in the... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Steel Production (Feb. 2024) The robust increase in global steel production since the beginning of the year probably has a bit further to run since there are few signs that the two largest producers – China and India – will slow... 22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) The drop in global aluminium production in February should be a blip now that output curbs in China’s Yunnan province due to power constraints have been lifted. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read