Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China, not a US slowdown, the key for industrial metals Following another leg down in industrial metals prices, this time due to growing worries about a US recession and the broader financial market carnage, we still think that prices will fall further... 7th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Sell-off in oil markets has gone too far The sharp fall in oil prices over the past week shows that fears of a US recession have so far outweighed concerns about conflict in the Middle East. But we think that oil prices have fallen too far... 6th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Olympic medals to lose their shine before long The start of the Paris Olympic Games today suggests that there will be renewed interest in gold, silver and bronze. We suspect that athletes will be disappointed by the fact that the Olympic medals... 25th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Europe natural gas price to stay lower than Asia LNG Booming demand for LNG in Asia this year has helped push prices in Asia to a sizeable premium over those in Europe. We think that this premium will remain above 10% over the rest of the year but will... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Gold jewellery to lose its lustre under high prices Gold jewellery demand has been highly sensitive to price changes in the past and so will come under pressure from the current backdrop of record high gold prices. Income growth in key markets will... 17th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU carbon price has further to fall The ~10% fall in EU carbon prices since the end of May has mirrored a similar-sized fall in European natural gas prices, and we forecast both to fall by a further 25-30% by year-end. That said, the... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s metals overcapacity to bear down on prices While the debate around China’s manufacturing overcapacity has centred around politically sensitive topics such as electric vehicles, its industrial metals sector is no exception. Whereas the focus of... 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Injecting some nuance into high hopes for hydrogen Hydrogen could play a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking and be a boon for countries and regions that are well placed to produce a surplus of renewable power... 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non... 17th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Peak oil debate slightly misses the point The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update US energy security to impede its energy transition The US economy has persistently outperformed its peers for over a century, and as our Spotlight series argues, will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. More recently, the US has also... 13th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Energy Update The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Attention turns towards the return of La Niña A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
