Commodities Update US debt deal is not the end of the road for gold’s bull run Despite the deal to extend the US debt limit, the price of gold hit record highs late yesterday. We think this makes sense. Although the deal may cut investors’ aversion to risk, it signals the onset... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strike action at mines distracts from demand woes Concern over ongoing and potential strike action at mines has helped send the price of a number of commodities higher in the past month, especially industrial metals. In our view, the attention placed... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are all commodities safe havens? The prices of gold and silver are obvious beneficiaries of the increasing worries about US government debt. But other commodities have also held up rather better than might have been expected... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA pledge should help cap oil prices The International Energy Agency (IEA) decided not to announce a further tapping of oil from strategic reserves today after the 30-day review of the release of 60m barrels last month. However, the... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMI signals Chinese demand still losing momentum The ongoing deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for July should offset at least some of the reassurance provided to commodity markets by the seemingly robust official data on... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Libyan end-game to knock at least $10 off oil prices We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent, currently $119, to fall back to $85 by the end of the year. This forecast is based largely on persistent sluggishness in demand, a stronger dollar... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Interpreting China’s steel output China’s steel output may well be higher than the official figures suggest, but the outlook for prices depends on what happens to demand. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How high could gold prices go? With the price of gold approaching $1,600 per ounce and hitting new highs this week in other major currencies too, many are asking how high prices could still go. A variety of methods suggests a... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities collapse China's imports of industrial commodities dropped sharply in the second quarter, indeed by more than they did during the global recession. Imports may well rebound in the second half of the year, but... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US demand likely to remain sluggish Today's weak employment report should go some way towards dashing the renewed optimism about the US economy which, combined with reduced fears of an imminent Greek default, had propped up commodity... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much do seasonal factors drive gold? The time of the year is fast approaching when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted by a seasonal pick-up in demand. We are sceptical that calendar effects can ever be that... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China’s destocking alone explain lower metals prices? The decline in China’s imports of industrial metals may partly reflect a drawdown of inventories, but underlying demand also appears to have weakened and shows no sign of rebounding. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil prices to fall further (and not just because of the IEA) Oil prices have probably overreacted to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) decision to release emergency stockpiles, just as they overreacted (in the opposite direction) to OPEC’s decision to... 25th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese demand continues to cool The continued deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for June supports our view that commodity prices – industrial metals in particular – have further to fall. There is plenty of... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices perked up by buoyant demand Similar to many other agricultural commodities, supply problems have caused the price of coffee to more than double since the start of 2010. However, there is a clear uptrend in coffee consumption too... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum and palladium prices have further to fall We expect slowing industrial demand, especially from the automotive sector, to cause the price of platinum to slide from around $1,800 per ounce to a low of $1,500 in 2012. Palladium may be better... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
