Commodities Update Industrial metal prices tumble and are set to fall further A triple whammy of weak PMIs in China and the euro-zone plus a downbeat assessment from the Federal Reserve about the long-term economic outlook has sparked sharp falls in commodity prices in the last... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Thailand’s rice scheme mean for global prices? Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, is set to introduce a generous price floor for local rice farmers, fuelling speculation that global rice prices are about to surge. However, we expect any... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro-zone crisis leaves more upside for gold Gold’s spectacular rise over the past decade has seen its price climb from $256 per ounce in 2001 to more than $1,900 at its recent peak. After such a long bull market and some large daily falls in... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Operation Twist” mean for commodities? Any further easing from the US Fed will probably be limited to lengthening the maturity of its existing holdings of Treasury securities (“Operation Twist”) rather than a third round of outright... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall to $85 per barrel in 2012 The factors that we had thought would undermine oil prices over the course of the year have been gradually falling into place, namely slower growth both in advanced and emerging economies, a reduction... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Beware the LME stocks data Stocks held on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have traditionally been seen as a barometer of the overall balance between supply and demand in the base metal markets. As such, the recent increase in... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity prices to drop back on QE3 disappointment Not for the first time, commodity prices have been propped up by hopes of additional monetary stimulus from the Fed. However, we doubt these hopes will be realised anytime soon. What’s more, even if... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Any support from China to prove temporary The stabilisation in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for August, along with (surely premature) hopes of additional monetary stimulus in the US, is providing some temporary support for... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Libyan regime change to undermine oil prices further The market response today has been muted, but we still think that regime change in Libya could ultimately knock $10 from the price of a barrel of Brent. 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold has further to rise despite likely Venezuelan sales In isolation, the news that the Venezuelan government is nationalising its gold industry and planning to repatriate its overseas gold reserves might be seen as negative for the price of the metal... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for oil prices? The recent bounce in oil prices, at least prior to today’s drops, had been interpreted by many as strong evidence of underlying tightness in the global market for crude. In contrast, we continue to... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold price set to exceed platinum by record amount Last week, the price of gold exceeded that of platinum, albeit only temporarily, for the first time since December 2008. In our view, this rare occurrence will be repeated and the spread will widen to... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports remain weak China’s commodity imports rose m/m in July, particularly those of copper and soybeans. Overall, this was more a reflection of weak imports in June and to a lesser extent the entire first half of the... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities not out of the woods In line with our forecasts, the prices of many commodities have fallen by more than 10% in recent days, with the exception of gold. We continue to believe that the prices of industrial metals and oil... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is gold’s sudden drop yesterday a sign of things to come? Amid widespread market turmoil yesterday, the factors which have been driving the price of gold higher caused it to hit an all-time high of just over $1,680 per ounce. Later on in the day, though... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Equity markets signal trouble ahead for commodities The prices of many commodities have held up comparatively well in the past few weeks, despite the rout in financial markets. Nonetheless, the sharp decline in prices of commodity-related equities... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
