Commodities Update Can tin producers wait long enough for higher prices? Tin is caught in a battle between Indonesian producers, who have halted exports as they wait for the metal’s price to rise from $21,500 to $25,000 per tonne, and consumers hoping exports will resume... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rice prices to drop sharply as Thai floods recede Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, has lost up to a quarter of its main rice harvest due to recent floods. However, ample global stockpiles, improved harvests in other major rice producing... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities (Oct.) The recovery in China’s commodity imports continued to gather pace in October. We remain of the view that this is mainly due to importers restocking, encouraged by lower prices, rather than any... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is gold a currency? The question of whether gold should be regarded as a “currency” might seem academic, but a discussion of the possible answers may shed some light on how best to analyse and forecast its price. Our... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro crisis likely to drag commodity prices much lower Our already low end-2013 forecasts for the prices of a range of major commodities, including Brent crude ($75 per barrel), copper ($5,000 per tonne) and corn (500 cents per bushel), assume that the... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper bottomed? The price of copper has rallied by 20% in the past week, to over $8,000 per tonne, following its earlier steep decline. But we believe this rebound is a false dawn and continue to expect the price of... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are commodities still a distinct asset class? The increasingly tight correlations between the prices of commodities and those of other assets, notably equities, have prompted some to question whether commodities can still be regarded as an asset... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No hard landing for China but demand outlook still poor The pick-up in China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI has eased concerns that the economy is about to crash land, but a period of relatively weak growth still lies ahead. What’s more, the latest euro... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar gains to add to downward pressures on prices The prospect of further strength in the US dollar is a clear and present danger to commodity prices of all types. But if the main driver is worries about sovereign debt, gold should still outperform. 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall further despite index rebasing (and Iran) We have been asked one or both of the same two oil-related questions by several clients this week. In summary, what are the implications of the addition of Brent to the basket for the Dow-Jones UBS... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s Imports of Commodities (Sep.) China’s commodity imports rose in the third quarter, particularly those of iron ore and copper. In our view, this was more a reflection of bargain-hunting rather than a strong upswing in underlying... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big a risk is a Chinese property crash? The boom in China’s construction sector has played an important role in driving demand for industrial metals, notably copper but also steel. Although there are two good reasons why the sector should... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global demand woes to send base metals even lower Despite the price of many industrial metals having plunged by a quarter in recent months, we believe that crumbling demand growth will lead to prices falling further. However, in the case of aluminium... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing downturn shows price weakness is real The deterioration in global manufacturing confirmed in the September PMI supports our view that underlying demand for commodities is weakening and that their prices have not simply been caught up in... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update 2012 copper price forecast lowered to $6,000 Copper prices have been a major casualty of the recent sell-off in commodities and have already dipped below our long-held forecast of $7,500 per tonne for 2012. Prices may well bounce in the coming... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold still deserves “safe haven” status The recent sharp falls in the dollar price of gold have led some to question its status as a refuge from problems elsewhere, especially now that the US currency is strengthening across the board... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
