Commodities Update "Tail risks" to oil prices still skewed to the downside The two greatest “tail risks” to oil prices this year are an escalation of tensions between Iran and the West (on the upside) and a worsening of the crisis in the euro-zone (on the downside). In... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Two painful lessons for commodity investors from 2011 This year’s sizeable falls in most commodity prices have highlighted two points that have actually been clear for much longer but are still not yet acknowledged by many commentators. First, even if... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are falling copper stocks a reason to be bullish? Declining stocks on global metal exchanges are often given as a reason to expect prices to rise. However, we are sceptical that the recent decline in reported copper stocks is due to strong end user... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak PMIs highlight downside risks to metals prices The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone remained well below 50 in December. Despite the prospect of further monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC’s quota hike all but irrelevant to oil price outlook OPEC’s decision today to raise the official target for the cartel’s oil output to close to the current level of production will make no real difference on the ground, especially as it reportedly did... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Chinese commodity imports are not set to last The volume of China’s commodity imports rose markedly in November, bolstered by weaker prices spurring restocking, probably instead of any upturn in final demand. Indeed, recent steps by the Chinese... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC sidelined as global slowdown offsets fears over Iran The regular OPEC meeting on 14th December will be overshadowed by the crisis in the euro-zone and tensions with Iran. Our oil price forecasts give more weight to the fall-out from a further escalation... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum’s low to be determined by rand and euro-zone We expect the price of platinum to fall from $1,520 per ounce to $1,300 in the next year due to ailing industrial demand. However, this will probably prove to be a cyclical low unless the rand weakens... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar price to drop another 20% in 2012 Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer and exporter, has revised down its sugar production estimate for 2011/12 due to bad weather. However, ample global stockpiles and improved harvests in other... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese slowdown adds to global concerns China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI for November fell back markedly, to well below 50, raising fears of a hard landing in the largest commodity consumer. We still believe that a hard landing in China... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to call the end of the bull market in gold The recent weakness of the gold price largely reflects the return of a degree of confidence in the US dollar, which has more than offset persistent worries about the sovereign debt crisis in the euro... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's behind the rebound in China's copper imports? The recent pick-up in Chinese imports of refined copper has been interpreted as a sign that underlying demand is rebounding in the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. However, a closer look... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread returning to reality The gap between the cost of Brent crude and the traditional US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is finally closing, but the episode has been another example of how speculative pressures can... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China's demand offset the impact of the euro crisis? The consensus view is that continued buoyant demand from China will prevent the prices of industrial commodities, such as crude oil and copper, from falling very far, despite the worsening financial... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is there any upside from the euro-zone crisis? Our baseline scenario is that an escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone will contribute to further large falls in almost all commodity prices over the next year or so, with gold and silver among... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much might conflict with Iran add to oil prices? The price of a barrel of Brent could spike from current levels of around $114 to anywhere between $135 and $210 in the unlikely event of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by the US or... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
