Commodities Update Oil prices to fall further (and not just because of the IEA) Oil prices have probably overreacted to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) decision to release emergency stockpiles, just as they overreacted (in the opposite direction) to OPEC’s decision to... 25th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese demand continues to cool The continued deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for June supports our view that commodity prices – industrial metals in particular – have further to fall. There is plenty of... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices perked up by buoyant demand Similar to many other agricultural commodities, supply problems have caused the price of coffee to more than double since the start of 2010. However, there is a clear uptrend in coffee consumption too... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum and palladium prices have further to fall We expect slowing industrial demand, especially from the automotive sector, to cause the price of platinum to slide from around $1,800 per ounce to a low of $1,500 in 2012. Palladium may be better... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's Imports of Commodities (May) China’s imports of many key commodities edged up in May compared to April, but they remain below their average level in the first quarter. Imports of copper in particularly have fallen sharply this... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold can reach $2,000 even without QE3 Despite receding fears of inflation we believe the price of gold will continue to climb, chiefly spurred by worries about the health of the global economy and sovereign debt. We think gold remains on... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC Quotas (Jun.) OPEC’s decision to maintain its current output quotas, rather than raise them, will disappoint many after the encouraging signals from Gulf delegates in the last 24 hours. However, oil production is... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The downside risks to agricultural commodity prices The UN’s assessment that agricultural commodity prices are likely to remain “high and volatile” for the rest of this year and into 2012 is perfectly reasonable. However, even if food prices do stay... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will commodity prices get a further boost from QE3? The dark cloud over the US economy has had a small silver lining for commodity prices in the form of renewed expectations of yet another bout of quantitative easing from the Fed and a lower dollar... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gulf fiscal pressures need not mean higher oil prices Major Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia now need higher prices to balance their government’s books, but these break-even rates are unlikely to act as a significant constraint on how far or... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for oil prices? Despite this week’s partial recovery, we continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent crude to drop back below $90 by the end of the year, as global demand slows, the Middle East risk premium... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China Flash PMI (May) The steady deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI today supports our view that the current weakness of commodity prices – industrial metals in particular – is fully consistent with... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What will the end of QE2 mean for commodities? The conclusion of the Fed’s second round of Treasury purchases may remove one reason for commodity prices to rise but it is not necessarily a good reason for them to fall. However, there are many... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity demand to disappoint Expectations that buoyant Chinese demand will drive commodity prices ever higher have been looking increasingly shaky. For a start, China’s imports of many key commodities have actually been falling... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices heading back towards $2,000 The price of aluminium has already fallen by around 7% this month, from the cyclical high of nearly $2,800 to around $2,600 per tonne, as part of the global commodity rout. We expect further... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read