Commodities Update How big is the Iran premium in oil prices? Estimates of the amount that the tensions between the West and Iran have added to global oil prices range from $5 to $25 per barrel (pb). Our best guess is towards the bottom of this range – perhaps... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's strong commodity imports not set to last China’s imports of commodities in February were strong, especially in volume terms, but this may have been distorted upwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays and by... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA report points to lower corn and soybean prices Consensus expectations of a significant tightening for corn and soybean were not supported by the latest supply and demand report from the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA). As a result... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper prices to drop as China’s demand falls short Speculation this week has focused on the overall pace of China’s GDP growth, but the greater downside risk to the prices of industrial metals over the medium term is the prospect of a decline in the... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update India’s ban unlikely to prevent further falls in cotton prices The spot price of the benchmark Memphis cotton price have jumped more than 5% to around 87 cents per lb after India, the world’s second largest producer and exporter of cotton, banned exports of the... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will oil continue to outperform? Many of the usual relationships between oil and other commodity prices have broken down in the past year, with the cost of crude rising to its highest level since 2008 while the prices of key... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Monetary stimulus not enough to rescue commodity prices The additional monetary stimulus from the world’s major central banks undoubtedly contributed to the recovery in asset prices, including commodities as well as equities, after the global recession... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices to fall back as China’s demand disappoints Soybean prices have strengthened recently on hopes of continued robust demand from China, the world’s major importer, reflected in news of increased purchases from the US. However, we expect growth in... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A tale of two exchanges Copper stocks on the two main metal exchanges have been moving almost continuously in opposite directions since the start of the year. As a result, LME stocks are at a 2-year low, but inventories on... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How far would an IEA stock release lower oil prices? There are several grounds for thinking that the International Energy Agency (IEA) would be quicker to release stocks in response to a further surge in oil prices if due to tensions with Iran than it... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvements in PMIs mask underlying fragility The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for February improved in both China and the euro-zone, but remain at levels consistent with further falls in the prices of industrial metals. The detail... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn to trade at a premium to wheat We expect both corn and wheat prices to decline over the next two years due to a combination of ample supply, increasing competition between key grains exporting regions and a disappointing global... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran’s latest position bearish (sic) for oil prices The apparent escalation in tensions between Iran and the EU over the weekend has been widely interpreted as bullish for oil prices. However, Iran’s position looks increasingly weak and the regime may... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices to hold up better than copper Over the past decade increases in the price of copper have far outpaced those of aluminium. The flipside is that, during the downturn we expect over the next two years, we forecast aluminium prices to... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports show renewed weakness China’s imports of commodities in January were surely distorted downwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays. Nonetheless, there are plenty of signs of underlying weakness... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strength in Brent likely to be temporary At least half a dozen explanations have been advanced for the recent jump in the price of Brent crude oil, whether in absolute terms or relative to the traditional US benchmark, West Texas... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
