Commodities Update Euro break-up should be a game-changer for gold We expect the exit of one or more countries from the euro-zone to drive the price of gold significantly higher. For now, the precious metal is losing out to other safe havens, notably the US dollar... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prospects for global demand continue to dim The further falls in the global manufacturing PMIs and the Baltic Dry Index underline the fragility of global demand and the downside risks to the prices of industrial commodities. Against this... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iron ore and steel prices yet to find a floor We expect production cuts at steel mills and iron ore mines will be insufficient to stop the prices of both steel and iron ore from falling further. The price of steel is likely to decline from $395... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China’s PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China's PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum prices to fall further before 2013 recovery Despite recent output cuts, we think that platinum prices have further to fall. We have pencilled in a low of $1,300 per oz for early 2013, from current levels of around $1,420. Given rising costs in... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The UAE’s energy policy should help to ease supply concerns Today’s announcement that the UAE has approved plans for its first nuclear power plant should help to reduce fears that even more oil will have to be used for domestic consumption rather than exported... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low shipping costs cast doubt on depth of recovery There is still no sign of a meaningful recovery in the Baltic Dry Index – a composite of global freight costs for dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and grains. Admittedly, this largely... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices vulnerable again to QE3 disappointment Not for the first time, commodity prices have recently been propped up by hopes of additional monetary stimulus from the US central bank. This explains the initial market disappointment that Chairman... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices have further to fall Cuts in power tariffs to high cost Chinese smelters and global economic weakness mean aluminium prices are likely to fall from $1,880 to no more than $1,750 per tonne over the next 12 months. 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons not to panic about US grain prices Fears of the “worst drought in the US in 25 years” have led to a spike in US grain prices and understandably added to concerns about another global food inflation shock. However, there are at least... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of industrial commodities drop sharply China’s commodity imports fell in June, with industrial commodities the worst affected due to the slowdown in economic activity. While end-user demand may recover a little in the second half, this may... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Three scenarios for US corn prices In this note we set out three illustrative scenarios for the price of US corn. If the dry weather remains the key driver and conditions turn out to be as bad as those in 1988, then corn could still... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Spike in price of Brent unlikely to be sustained The price of Brent crude has jumped back above $100 per barrel (pb) today, but we doubt this rebound will last for long. In particular, Iran’s threats to disrupt the flow of oil through the Strait of... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the markets right to shrug off the US ISM? The markets have taken the alarmingly weak US ISM data in their stride, seemingly banking on European policymakers and the US Fed to turn things around quickly. This muted reaction looks complacent to... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What effect will Iran sanctions have on oil prices? We maintain our view that the imminent tightening of Western sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have anywhere near as large an impact on global oil prices as many had feared. Demand is weakening and... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
