Commodities Update Falling PMIs show industrial demand ailing The flash manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone fell in May. Despite the prospect of some near-term support from policy easing in China, industrial commodity prices are likely to fall... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Easing Iran tensions to undermine oil prices further Concerns about the crisis in the euro-zone, fears of a “hard landing” in China and weaker data in the US have displaced tensions with Iran as the main driver of global oil prices. Nonetheless, a... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would a Greek euro exit mean for commodities? Our central forecasts for industrial commodity prices already reflect some of the potential fall-out from a Greek euro exit. In particular, the economic and financial uncertainty is one of several... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where is the safe haven demand for gold? The price of gold has dropped sharply in recent days and is barely changed in 2012 to date. The fact that gold has struggled despite the worsening crisis in Europe has added to doubts about its status... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports drop back Chinese commodity imports have been undermined by weak industrial demand and high stockpiles. We expect these factors to continue to put downward pressure on commodity prices. 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent on course to end year below $100 Crude oil prices have remained weak after last week’s sharp falls, largely due to concerns over the US economy and the escalating problems in Europe. We expect these pressures to ebb and flow over the... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices have further to fall Wheat prices fell by around 7% last week as concerns about crop damage due to a late winter freeze in the US were replaced by expectations of a bumper harvest. Prices have recovered a little this week... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is iron ore outperforming steel? The price of iron ore has risen by 6% since the start of the year, chiefly due to lower production, while the price of steel fell by 7%. We don’t expect this divergence to continue as higher iron ore... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three illustrative scenarios for the price of gold The lack of a reliable income stream makes gold notoriously hard to value objectively, whilst the key drivers constantly seem to be changing. The current price is around $1,645 per ounce, having been... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone PMIs paint worrying picture The first estimates of the Chinese and euro-zone manufacturing PMIs for April remained below 50 and are consistent with further sharp falls in the prices of industrial metals. Most worryingly, the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's next for soybean prices? The price of the benchmark yellow no. 1 soybean has risen by about 20% since the beginning of 2012, to 1400 US cents per bushel, from 1180. Factors that contributed to this rise are drought related... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weather won't keep US natural gas prices down for long The bulk of the decline in the price of US natural gas, from $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) early in 2010 to around $3 at the start of 2012, can be explained by the surge in supply. But... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to China’s commodity demand still skewed downwards North Korea’s rocket program appears to be at greater risk of an imminent “hard landing” than China’s economy. But beyond that, today’s Q1 GDP data tell us little about the prospects for China’s... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA’s oil market outlook still too bullish The IEA’s latest assessment that the “tide of remorseless tightening in the oil market” appears to have turned is surely right. Indeed, this has already been reflected in the levelling out of crude... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply shortages already priced into corn and soybean Global soybean production estimates published by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) were revised down today, but by no more than already anticipated by the market. However... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports show signs of weakening Many analysts have focused on the still-high levels of China’s commodity imports in March and the rapid year-on-year growth rate. However, the seasonally adjusted data show imports ended the quarter... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read