Commodities Update Global oil prices to fall further and remain lower We still expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back to around $85 next year, despite threats of a complete halt to Iranian oil exports. Our forecast would also be well below the “fair price”... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak recovery in China, none at all in euro-zone Today’s early indications of economic conditions in October provided mixed signals for commodity markets, with some less-bad news from China offset by a further deterioration in the euro-zone. The... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What could the US elections mean for commodities? The outcome of the US Presidential election is unlikely to have a major impact on commodity markets but there may still be some fall-out if Romney wins. Romney’s plan to accelerate energy independence... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fears of new agricultural export bans look overdone Talk of widespread export bans has continued to boost the prices of agricultural commodities over the last few days, but the basis for this speculation remains flimsy. The immediate focus is the... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does China’s growth outlook means for commodities? Consensus expectations for China’s growth and commodity demand have already been marked down but we think this adjustment still has further to go. With the crisis in the euro-zone also likely to... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread getting silly again The widening differential between the prices of Brent crude and the traditional US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is increasingly hard to justify in terms of the fundamentals of the oil... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold rally needs a new catalyst as QE boost fades We suspect that further gains for gold will require a new catalyst as the US dollar recovers more ground and inflation expectations drop back. But that catalyst is likely to come soon in the form of a... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports flattered by temporary factors China’s imports of commodities recovered some ground in September after a poor August, aided by a seasonal pick-up in demand and restocking. However, there is little to suggest that this marks the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA crop report suggests prices unsustainably high The gains in wheat, soybean and (especially) corn prices today may give the impression that the latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published by the United States Department for... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is global aluminium output still rising? Despite aluminium prices on the LME having been below costs for many smelters for over a year, global aluminium production has risen due to record premiums, increased output in western China and... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran premium in oil prices set to fall The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as fears of a military conflict between the West and Iran. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still... 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More downside for soybean prices than most expect We have revised our near-term soybean price forecasts higher to reflect the ongoing support from lower US supplies. However, this support should fade as the focus moves on to the prospect of a record... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak PMIs provide another reality check With the boost to commodity prices from global policy stimulus already fading, the continued weakness of the flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone is a timely reminder of the poor... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi reports add to downward pressure on oil prices Reports that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase oil supplies may be little new but they support our view that prices are set to fall sharply. As it happens, the Gulf state has already ramped up... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Would the US go it alone with an oil stock release? Oil prices are likely to fall back without the need for the release of emergency reserves as optimism about the impact of global policy stimulus fades and demand remains weak. But if prices do rise... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's "stimulus" does not justify higher metals prices The prices of metals and ores, particularly iron, have been boosted over the past few days by reports that China has approved a large number of infrastructure projects. However, a closer look confirms... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
