Commodities Update What does the surge in China's imports mean for rice? Mainland China’s net rice imports will have risen to record levels in 2012, whereas the country has traditionally been a net exporter. At first sight this might have been expected to have a major... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA report further eases supply fears The latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) has relieved concerns about the supply of wheat, whilst the prospects... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC decisions won’t prevent oil price falls This week’s OPEC meeting will be dominated by the tricky choice of a new Secretary-General, while the decision on output should be relatively simple. We agree with the consensus that the notional... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports disappoint Today’s Chinese trade data highlight the continued weakness in demand in the largest global consumer of commodities. The headline data did show commodity imports rising month-on-month but after... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s the right benchmark for US oil prices? The US Energy Information Administration’s recent decision to switch to Brent rather than West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as its reference oil price has reignited the debate about the appropriate... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Molybdenum: the Capital Economics view Molybdenum is being added to our coverage of industrial metals from today. We expect the molybdenum price to fall by at least another 10% next year, to $9.50 per pound ($21,000 per tonne), as Chinese... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s happening to China’s unreported copper stocks? The conventional method of estimating China’s copper consumption has probably been exaggerating industrial demand for the red metal since the middle of 2011. This is because it does not allow for... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will Basel III affect the demand for gold? There is still widespread confusion and uncertainty over the impact that the Basel III regulations might have on the demand for gold. Gold is an “asset” rather than “capital” and therefore... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs improve but remain at low levels Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone have both risen and appear to have sent commodity prices slightly higher. However, the former only points to a weak recovery in China while... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Middle East break-evens won’t set a floor on oil prices The recent increases in the level of the oil price required to balance government budgets for the major Gulf producers are often cited as a reason to expect the cost of crude to remain high. In... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the US become the world's top oil producer? The likelihood that the US will become the world’s largest oil producer by the end of the decade is not the game-changer that it may first appear. Total oil output in the US has already surged to a... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports boosted by oil A rebound in China’s imports of oil in October flatters the state of underlying commodity demand. The current improvement in economic activity is unlikely to lead to a similar rebound in overall... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA report should ease fears over grain prices The latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) appear to have calmed the markets, and rightly so. In particular... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine wheat export “ban” remains a sideshow The ongoing debate over whether or not Ukraine is set to ban wheat exports misses the bigger points that (i) Ukraine has already exported almost all of the grain it was expected to this year, and (ii)... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How "good" economic data can be "bad" for commodities The slide in commodity prices today following the release of an apparently strong US Employment Report underlines their sensitivity to expectations of further monetary support. As it happens, the pace... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Does the price of gold follow a seasonal pattern? November is the month when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted the most by a seasonal pick-up in demand. There does indeed appear to be a seasonal pattern in the gold price but... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
