Commodities Update Is the copper market in surplus? Almost all analysts believe that global copper demand is likely to exceed supply this year. We disagree. The official figures over-state Chinese copper consumption and when adjusted for this the... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain lacklustre Hopes of a swift rebound in Chinese commodity imports were dashed by today’s trade data which have sent commodity prices lower. We expect this to be a recurring theme as any rebound in China’s economy... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices are poised to fall US corn production estimates published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) were revised down sharply. However, this was largely anticipated by the market, and was mainly... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower tin output will not be enough to stop price decline Falling global demand for tin, due to slower economic growth, thrifting and substitution, means we expect tin prices to drop from $17,900 per tonne today to around $16,500 by the end of 2013 despite... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro break-up should be a game-changer for gold We expect the exit of one or more countries from the euro-zone to drive the price of gold significantly higher. For now, the precious metal is losing out to other safe havens, notably the US dollar... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prospects for global demand continue to dim The further falls in the global manufacturing PMIs and the Baltic Dry Index underline the fragility of global demand and the downside risks to the prices of industrial commodities. Against this... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iron ore and steel prices yet to find a floor We expect production cuts at steel mills and iron ore mines will be insufficient to stop the prices of both steel and iron ore from falling further. The price of steel is likely to decline from $395... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China’s PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China's PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum prices to fall further before 2013 recovery Despite recent output cuts, we think that platinum prices have further to fall. We have pencilled in a low of $1,300 per oz for early 2013, from current levels of around $1,420. Given rising costs in... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The UAE’s energy policy should help to ease supply concerns Today’s announcement that the UAE has approved plans for its first nuclear power plant should help to reduce fears that even more oil will have to be used for domestic consumption rather than exported... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low shipping costs cast doubt on depth of recovery There is still no sign of a meaningful recovery in the Baltic Dry Index – a composite of global freight costs for dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and grains. Admittedly, this largely... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices vulnerable again to QE3 disappointment Not for the first time, commodity prices have recently been propped up by hopes of additional monetary stimulus from the US central bank. This explains the initial market disappointment that Chairman... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices have further to fall Cuts in power tariffs to high cost Chinese smelters and global economic weakness mean aluminium prices are likely to fall from $1,880 to no more than $1,750 per tonne over the next 12 months. 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons not to panic about US grain prices Fears of the “worst drought in the US in 25 years” have led to a spike in US grain prices and understandably added to concerns about another global food inflation shock. However, there are at least... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of industrial commodities drop sharply China’s commodity imports fell in June, with industrial commodities the worst affected due to the slowdown in economic activity. While end-user demand may recover a little in the second half, this may... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read