Commodities Update Will the recovery in cotton prices be sustained? The price of cotton, which fell by around 20% in 2012, has turned around to become the best performing of the major agricultural commodities so far this year, rising by about 10%. This recovery has... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is it time to give up on commodities? It has taken two years of dismal returns and a regulatory backlash, but the consensus has finally swung round to our long-held scepticism about the “super-cycle” and the diversification benefits of... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports flattered by timing of New Year The value of China’s commodity imports rose y/y in January at their fastest rate since October but this may well have been due to the distortions caused by the timing of the lunar New Year as much as... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tensions with Iran to keep oil prices high for longer The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as tensions in the Middle East. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still includes a premium of $10-15... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sustained recovery in BDI still some way off One commodity-related indicator that has failed to show any signs of a revival is the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs, which remains more than 90% below its pre-crisis peak. Indeed, the BDI... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lumber: the Capital Economics view Lumber, or sawn timber as it is also known, is being added to our coverage of agriculturals from today. Despite a sharp rise in lumber prices last year and our expectations of only a lacklustre... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strengthening global sentiment to support prices in Q1 Improving business conditions and confidence in financial markets should support higher prices for industrial commodities through the first quarter at least, but doubts remain about their... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Has the Saudi oil price target moved to $110? We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back below $100 this year, despite recent speculation that cuts to Saudi production signal an increased willingness to allow oil prices to... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold set to regain premium to platinum later this year Substantial production cuts have been announced today by Anglo American Platinum, the world’s largest platinum producer. As a result, the price of platinum has risen above that of gold for the first... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain stocks lower but prices to stay on downward trend Wheat and corn prices have risen over recent days as the USDA revised down its projections for year-end stocks. However, we still expect prices to fall during 2013 as supply improves and the... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports lacklustre in December China’s imports of commodities continued to grow at a decent pace in 2012, setting new highs in many cases. However, the December data did not show much of an acceleration, with import volumes for... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Alumina: the Capital Economics view Alumina is being added to our coverage of commodities from today. We expect the price of alumina, as shown by the MB alumina index, to rise from around $330 per tonne (FOB Bunbury, Australia) at... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is there any more upside for gold? The price of gold looks set to end 2012 on a low note, perhaps below $1,700 per ounce, but we continue to expect the precious metal to reach new record highs of at least $2,000 in 2013. The monetary... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rhodium: the Capital Economics view Rhodium is being added to our coverage of precious metals from today. Despite our expectations of a deep recession in the euro-zone and lacklustre growth elsewhere, we believe that the price of... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs rise but support for commodities to be short-lived Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone have both improved, but they remain at relatively low levels. Other recent data suggest that China’s recovery still lacks momentum and that... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Fed policy mean for commodities? The muted reaction to the Fed’s announcement yesterday supports our view that the boost to commodity prices from exceptionally loose US monetary policy has now largely run its course. The monetary... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
