Commodities Update Correction in lumber prices should prove temporary US lumber prices have fallen sharply over the last couple of months after what, with hindsight, looks like an earlier overshoot. Nonetheless, we expect prices to climb again over the rest of the year. 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices range-bound by supply We think that the price of aluminium is unlikely to be able to sustain moves much outside the range of $1,800 to $2,100 per tonne over the next year or two, due to the potential supply responses in... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much does OPEC matter? The twice-yearly OPEC meeting in Vienna tomorrow is likely to confirm the official production target of 30m barrels per day. But the bigger picture is that the cartel now ranks no higher than a... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rise in soybean prices unlikely to be sustained The recent strength in US soybean prices has been driven by fears of tight supplies as congestion at Brazilian ports delays exports. However, as the logistical problems ease and planting of the new... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak manufacturing data underline downside risks The sub-50 reading for China’s flash manufacturing PMI today shows the fragility of the underlying demand for industrial commodities, including copper and oil, as the economic slowdown there deepens... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising mine output to keep copper price weak Global copper mine output is on track to rise rapidly for a second successive year, despite a recent landslide and a tragic tunnel collapse at two of the world’s largest mines (Bingham Canyon and... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low shipping costs add to concerns over the recovery The persistent weakness in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is still primarily a reflection of the surge in the supply of cargo ships over the last few years. Demand for transporting dry bulk commodities... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rally in platinum prices postponed not cancelled Anglo American Platinum’s decision to scale back its planned production cuts mean that the global platinum industry is better supplied than had appeared likely. We suspect that further mine closures... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain and oilseed supply to surge to record levels Projections of record global crop production in 2013/14 by the United States Department of Agriculture have been the trigger for renewed weakness in the prices of US grains and oilseeds. We had... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why QE helps equities more than commodities There are three main reasons why further monetary stimulus, including quantitative easing (QE), is likely to benefit equities more than it benefits the prices of industrial commodities, including... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil’s oil output reach its potential? Brazil is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets for oil production, but crude output could still increase by at least one million barrels per day from current levels by 2020. This would add to... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain weak We estimate that the volume of China’s commodity imports rose y/y for the first time this year in April. But looking beyond the positive headlines, the figures were artificially boosted by calendar... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain price rally set to be short lived The recent rally in the price of US grains has been driven by renewed fears over supply. However, we think that these concerns are overstated and expect prices to resume their downward trend over 2013... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE not necessarily the end of the world Concerns about the potential impact of the end of quantitative easing ebb and flow, but we remain relatively sanguine. Detailed market forecasts will follow shortly in our quarterly publications, The... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing PMIs signal demand remains lacklustre The decline in the flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone in April, published today, triggered fresh falls in industrial commodity prices, sending copper to an 18-month low. We think... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Where do we stand on China and the "super-cycle"? In the light of the recent sharp falls in many commodity prices, it is worth reiterating our scepticism on the durability of the “super-cycle” and on the scope for further support from China. 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
