Commodities Update USDA report should ease fears over grain prices The latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) appear to have calmed the markets, and rightly so. In particular... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine wheat export “ban” remains a sideshow The ongoing debate over whether or not Ukraine is set to ban wheat exports misses the bigger points that (i) Ukraine has already exported almost all of the grain it was expected to this year, and (ii)... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How "good" economic data can be "bad" for commodities The slide in commodity prices today following the release of an apparently strong US Employment Report underlines their sensitivity to expectations of further monetary support. As it happens, the pace... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Does the price of gold follow a seasonal pattern? November is the month when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted the most by a seasonal pick-up in demand. There does indeed appear to be a seasonal pattern in the gold price but... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global oil prices to fall further and remain lower We still expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back to around $85 next year, despite threats of a complete halt to Iranian oil exports. Our forecast would also be well below the “fair price”... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak recovery in China, none at all in euro-zone Today’s early indications of economic conditions in October provided mixed signals for commodity markets, with some less-bad news from China offset by a further deterioration in the euro-zone. The... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What could the US elections mean for commodities? The outcome of the US Presidential election is unlikely to have a major impact on commodity markets but there may still be some fall-out if Romney wins. Romney’s plan to accelerate energy independence... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fears of new agricultural export bans look overdone Talk of widespread export bans has continued to boost the prices of agricultural commodities over the last few days, but the basis for this speculation remains flimsy. The immediate focus is the... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does China’s growth outlook means for commodities? Consensus expectations for China’s growth and commodity demand have already been marked down but we think this adjustment still has further to go. With the crisis in the euro-zone also likely to... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread getting silly again The widening differential between the prices of Brent crude and the traditional US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is increasingly hard to justify in terms of the fundamentals of the oil... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold rally needs a new catalyst as QE boost fades We suspect that further gains for gold will require a new catalyst as the US dollar recovers more ground and inflation expectations drop back. But that catalyst is likely to come soon in the form of a... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports flattered by temporary factors China’s imports of commodities recovered some ground in September after a poor August, aided by a seasonal pick-up in demand and restocking. However, there is little to suggest that this marks the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA crop report suggests prices unsustainably high The gains in wheat, soybean and (especially) corn prices today may give the impression that the latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published by the United States Department for... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is global aluminium output still rising? Despite aluminium prices on the LME having been below costs for many smelters for over a year, global aluminium production has risen due to record premiums, increased output in western China and... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran premium in oil prices set to fall The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as fears of a military conflict between the West and Iran. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still... 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More downside for soybean prices than most expect We have revised our near-term soybean price forecasts higher to reflect the ongoing support from lower US supplies. However, this support should fade as the focus moves on to the prospect of a record... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read