Commodities Update Plummeting cobalt prices still have further to fall We think that the proposed ban on exporting cobalt concentrates by the largest producing country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), will be deferred again at the end of this year. As a result... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China weakening, euro-zone stabilising Flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone, released this morning, have continued to diverge. China’s manufacturing index fell unexpectedly to its lowest level since last August, but the euro-zone... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is silver set to outshine gold? The analyst consensus is that the price of silver is likely to outperform that of gold as both continue to recover in the next year or so. We are nudging our gold price forecasts higher today in the... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Recent fall in gas prices due to a lot of hot air The recent swings in the price of natural gas in the US have mainly been caused by the unusually cold spring. The bigger picture is that higher demand from utilities and manufacturers and lower... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices likely to fall back by year end We expect the price of US soybeans to decline gradually over the summer as exports from South America pick up. They may then fall more rapidly by the end of the year as a large supply of crops from... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity imports were stronger than overall trade in June, but were still weak in the first half of 2013 overall. What’s more, China is shifting to a lower and less commodity-intensive growth... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Favourable weather to dampen US grain prices further The falls in US grain prices over the last month were largely due to better weather which allowed farmers to finish planting. The extremely wet spring had supported prices due to fears that late... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's behind the narrowing in the Brent-WTI spread? The collapse in the differential between the prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) primarily reflects the prospect of a further easing of the logistical constraints that have been... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is $100 oil here to stay? The relative resilience of oil prices in the face of worries about US monetary policy and the health of China’s economy suggest that $100 will act as a floor for the price of a barrel of Brent for a... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A new front in the war on coal? US President Obama’s speech on climate change policy yesterday contained little new. Nonetheless, it highlights the downward pressures on coal prices already coming from environmental policy... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China slowdown and policy outlooks to keep prices weak Poor Chinese manufacturing data and the prospect that US monetary policy may soon be less supportive have more than offset signs that the recession in the euro-zone is easing. Of these developments... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rice price to continue to fall as Thailand reduces support We expect the reduction in the floor price the Thai government will pay rice farmers to increase private exports and sales from government stocks, putting further downward pressure on prices. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s really happening to China’s copper demand? Traditional methods of calculating copper demand have been suggesting that Chinese consumption is actually falling. However, these estimates of “apparent consumption” are distorted by changes in... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are oil prices set to take off due to Syria risks? Fears that Western intervention in Syria could increase the risks of a broader Middle East conflict have already put some upward pressure on the price of Brent crude. However, even if tensions do... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are commodities to the tapering of QE3? The prospect of a reduction in US monetary stimulus has already begun to undermine the prices of many risky assets, from developed market equities to emerging market currencies. However, this prospect... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's underlying demand still weak The jump in China’s imports of major commodities on a month on month basis in May was probably flattered by the easing of earlier port delays. Other incoming economic data suggest that demand remains... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
