Commodities Update The environment looks to be winning the war on coal We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as major consuming countries, including China as well as the US, take fresh steps to reduce pollution. 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the Fed decision mean for commodities? After the initial bounce, the Fed’s decision to maintain its current pace of asset purchases for a while longer is unlikely to have any major implications for commodity prices. Precious metals have... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can seasonal demand alone rescue the price of gold? This is the time of the year when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted by a seasonal pick-up in demand. There does indeed appear to be a seasonal pattern in the gold price but, as... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update If the oil market is well supplied, what's keeping prices high? In contrast to OPEC, we think that supply outages from Libya and other producers, as well as wider geopolitical tensions, are playing a key role in keeping oil prices high. 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising China demand won't stop oil prices from falling Despite increasing oil imports by China and other emerging economies, we expect the price of crude to fall as the temporary factors underpinning current high prices are resolved. What’s more, larger... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Thai rice price has not quite found its floor yet Despite the dramatic decline in the price of Thai rice over the last month, we still think there is room for further falls. Sales from Thailand’s enormous official stockpiles into an already well... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Shanghai copper premiums are likely to plummet Copper premiums in Shanghai hit a record high earlier this month but we expect them to fall from around $175 per tonne at present to under $100 over the next six months or so. 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s behind the rally in gold? The recent partial recovery in the price of gold reflects a range of positives. Some of these should be sustained, notably the growing recognition that US monetary conditions will remain loose even... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone data provide some cheer (for now) In the event, the FOMC minutes simply reinforced expectations that the US central bank will start to taper its asset purchases as soon as next month. Instead, industrial metals prices have been buoyed... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update LME steel prices set to rally We expect the LME steel price to rise from around $165 per tonne to $270 by the end of 2015 due to the narrowing of differences between LME and other steel prices and the closure of Chinese capacity. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Only a small part of the recent run-up in oil prices is due to the turmoil in Egypt. But whatever the reason for the latest jump in the cost of crude, the fragility of the global economic recovery and... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are iron ore prices set to tumble? We expect iron ore prices to drop from around $144 per tonne currently to $110 by the end of this year and to fall further thereafter, due to escalating supply and disappointing Chinese demand. 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China still the wildcard Three macro developments should continue to set the tone for industrial commodity prices in the coming months. The end of the euro-zone recession is only a small positive, while the prospect that the... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain and soybean prices still have further to fall We think that the prices of US grains and soybeans are still higher than can be sustained by fundamentals, despite the sharp falls last month. 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to grind lower over the next year Despite the introduction of a new support scheme for coffee farmers in Brazil, we expect the price of arabica coffee to fall from around 120 US cents per lb today to 100 by the end of 2014. This is... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports surge higher After a year of being pitifully weak, China’s commodity imports rose rapidly in July, in many cases to record highs. This has sparked a rally in commodity prices but we doubt this will be sustained. 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
