Commodities Update China still the wildcard Three macro developments should continue to set the tone for industrial commodity prices in the coming months. The end of the euro-zone recession is only a small positive, while the prospect that the... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain and soybean prices still have further to fall We think that the prices of US grains and soybeans are still higher than can be sustained by fundamentals, despite the sharp falls last month. 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to grind lower over the next year Despite the introduction of a new support scheme for coffee farmers in Brazil, we expect the price of arabica coffee to fall from around 120 US cents per lb today to 100 by the end of 2014. This is... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports surge higher After a year of being pitifully weak, China’s commodity imports rose rapidly in July, in many cases to record highs. This has sparked a rally in commodity prices but we doubt this will be sustained. 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Plummeting cobalt prices still have further to fall We think that the proposed ban on exporting cobalt concentrates by the largest producing country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), will be deferred again at the end of this year. As a result... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China weakening, euro-zone stabilising Flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone, released this morning, have continued to diverge. China’s manufacturing index fell unexpectedly to its lowest level since last August, but the euro-zone... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is silver set to outshine gold? The analyst consensus is that the price of silver is likely to outperform that of gold as both continue to recover in the next year or so. We are nudging our gold price forecasts higher today in the... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Recent fall in gas prices due to a lot of hot air The recent swings in the price of natural gas in the US have mainly been caused by the unusually cold spring. The bigger picture is that higher demand from utilities and manufacturers and lower... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices likely to fall back by year end We expect the price of US soybeans to decline gradually over the summer as exports from South America pick up. They may then fall more rapidly by the end of the year as a large supply of crops from... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity imports were stronger than overall trade in June, but were still weak in the first half of 2013 overall. What’s more, China is shifting to a lower and less commodity-intensive growth... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Favourable weather to dampen US grain prices further The falls in US grain prices over the last month were largely due to better weather which allowed farmers to finish planting. The extremely wet spring had supported prices due to fears that late... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's behind the narrowing in the Brent-WTI spread? The collapse in the differential between the prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) primarily reflects the prospect of a further easing of the logistical constraints that have been... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is $100 oil here to stay? The relative resilience of oil prices in the face of worries about US monetary policy and the health of China’s economy suggest that $100 will act as a floor for the price of a barrel of Brent for a... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A new front in the war on coal? US President Obama’s speech on climate change policy yesterday contained little new. Nonetheless, it highlights the downward pressures on coal prices already coming from environmental policy... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China slowdown and policy outlooks to keep prices weak Poor Chinese manufacturing data and the prospect that US monetary policy may soon be less supportive have more than offset signs that the recession in the euro-zone is easing. Of these developments... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rice price to continue to fall as Thailand reduces support We expect the reduction in the floor price the Thai government will pay rice farmers to increase private exports and sales from government stocks, putting further downward pressure on prices. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read