Commodities Update Quality over quantity for Chinese farmers, but supply still ample The announcement that China’s government will place more emphasis on food safety and quality, rather than just quantity, might suggest that the country will have to import significantly more grain... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad US weather driving commodity prices in unexpected ways Adverse weather is affecting US commodity prices in some obvious and some more surprising ways. As would be expected, the prices of energy and some agricultural commodities have surged. But less... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's imports not as strong as headlines suggest Although China’s imports of many commodities reached new “record highs” in levels terms in January, this headline can be written most months. Indeed, the data were probably flattered by demand brought... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong demand to limit grain price falls Strong demand for grains is likely to support prices over the first half of the year. However, large harvests in South America and the US should put downward pressure on prices as the year progresses. 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falling aluminium premiums should support prices We believe that the recent surge in US aluminium price premiums will be temporary as it reflects a regional supply bottleneck rather than a fundamentally tight global market. Supply will inevitably... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazilian drought heats up coffee and sugar markets High global stocks of sugar and coffee should be more than ample to cover any damage to crop production from the heat wave in Brazil. However, the amount of rain over the next few months will be the... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities look to stronger GDP growth for comfort Commodity prices initially appeared to have shrugged off the recent sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets, perhaps focussing on the fact that Fed tapering depends on a continued pick-up in economic... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cold weather heats up the US natural gas market The extreme cold in the US this winter has caused a dramatic increase in the price of natural gas. This jump is likely to be short-lived but we expect a more sustained price rise from 2015. 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to panic about zinc supply The scheduled closure of a number of the world’s largest zinc mines after a period of strong growth in consumption suggests that there could be upward pressure on zinc prices in 2014-15. This... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad news from China offsets better news from Europe Disappointing manufacturing data from China underline the downside risks to the prices of industrial commodities in the coming months, although the news from the euro-zone is continuing to improve. 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to galvanise the steel price in 2014 Lower production costs and only modest growth in demand is likely to mean that steel mills will have little pricing power in 2014 and that prices will fall. By 2015, however, if consolidation in China... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China to stop supporting cotton prices Changes to China’s farm subsidies, which would allow market forces to have more influence over domestic cotton and soybean prices, should also result in substantially lower state stockpiling. This... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Should we worry about sinking freight costs? The latest slump in the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of sea freight costs) has prompted some concern over the strength of the global economic recovery. However, we would not place much faith in the BDI... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Indonesia's export ban offers temporary support to nickel prices On 12th January, a law banning ore exports from Indonesia came into effect. The impact will be greatest in the nickel market, where Indonesia has a dominant position as the second largest miner of... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher output implies another weak year for grain prices Further increases in the production of grains and soybeans this year should put further downward pressure on prices. However, there is still plenty of time for adverse weather to shock the market. 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran deal underlines downside risks for global oil prices Confirmation that the interim nuclear deal between the major Western powers and Iran will come into force on 20th January is not in itself a game-changer for oil markets. Indeed, in the near-term... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
