Commodities Update Surge in China's soybean imports likely to be unsustainable China’s imports of key commodities grew strongly again last month despite lacklustre industrial activity. However, the growth mainly reflects temporary factors such as earlier shipments from Brazil... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dwindling supply growth will ultimately support lead prices We expect lead prices to fall in the near term, reflecting concerns about the outlook for China’s demand and a relatively comfortable stock position. However, the market is likely to fall into deficit... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Nickel prices may have risen too far, too soon As of end-April, nickel prices had risen 32% since the beginning of 2014, defying the otherwise downward trend in industrial metals prices. The catalyst was a ban on ore exports by Indonesia... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low stocks will put upward pressure on US natural gas prices Extremely low levels of natural gas stocks in the US are likely to put upward pressure on prices over the rest of this year and potentially even into 2015. 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper hasn't yet bottomed The unwinding of financing deals in China that use copper as collateral is set to add to the downward pressures on prices from a further slowdown in China’s economy, led by the property sector. We... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update El Niño will only provide temporary support to commodity prices An El Niño weather event appears likely in the second half of 2014, which may disrupt the supply of some commodities. The disruption could lead to sharply higher prices where stocks are already low or... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What China’s GDP data should mean for commodities China’s official GDP data for the first quarter, released earlier today, could reasonably be interpreted either positively or negatively for commodities. The commonest reaction appears to be relief... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's soybean demand is likely to slump later this year We think that the drivers of the recent surge in grain and soybean prices are likely to prove temporary. Lower demand from China coupled with large harvests from Brazil should put downward pressure on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update One more leg down in copper prices still to come The consensus is finally coming round to our long-held bearish view on the price of copper, but we still think there will be one last (big) move lower. The most likely trigger is disappointment at the... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports prove resilient, for now China’s imports of key commodities grew strongly in the first quarter of this year despite slowing industrial activity. However, we think it is too soon to conclude that growth in commodity demand is... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are gold prices to rising real yields? All else being equal, the return of US inflation-adjusted interest rates to more normal levels might be expected to lead to a sharp fall in the gold price. However, we expect the pace of normalisation... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Unplanned supply outages keeping oil prices high Large unplanned supply outages have helped keep oil prices high over the last three years, despite a surge in production from the US. We expect the factors holding back supply to ease over the next... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices will still struggle this year Aluminium prices have been falling since 2011, despite solid growth in demand. The underlying problem is the scale of excess capacity and output in China which will remain a drag this year at least... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US farmers to prioritise soybeans over corn Large potential plantings of soybeans, corn and wheat by US farmers underpin our view that US grain and soybeans prices are likely to fall over the course of this year. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slower growth in China's demand for oil to weigh on prices We expect China’s oil demand to continue to grow at a sluggish pace over the next few years. However, rather than this primarily being due to slower economic growth, we would put more emphasis on... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Solid fundamentals will support palladium prices Palladium prices have risen 11% since the beginning of this year. A number of recent developments, including the risk of disruption to Russia’s exports of palladium, have provided a boost. But we... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
