Commodities Update Slump in cotton prices not over yet Extraordinarily high levels of stocks, excessive production and increasing competition from man-madefibres should all put further downward pressure on the price of cotton over the next few years. 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to the copper price remain on the downside, for now We expect renewed weakness in the copper price later this year as mine supply picks up and Chinese copper imports continue to fall due to waning demand from financing deals. However, we expect prices... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s industrial metals imports likely to fall further China’s imports of key commodities were weak in June reflecting the slowdown in the property sector as well as lower import activity related to financing deals. In our view, these factors are likely... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is Libyan oil output set to rebound? We are cautiously optimistic about the reopening of some Libyan oil fields and ports. Although previous attempts at restarting production have ended in failure, the deal this time around seems like a... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is China’s steel industry set to shrink, at last? The latest batch of emerging market (EM) PMIs suggests that the rebound in EM manufacturing gatheredpace in June. The best performers are still in Asia and Central Europe, as well as Mexico, but there... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Zinc price rally is premature That the zinc market will tighten in 2014-15 owing to the closure of some large mines appears inevitable. But, for now, stocks (official and unofficial) are high and while consumption growth appears... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would higher US interest rates mean for commodities? We are forecasting that the Fed will hike US interest rates sooner and raise them further than the markets currently anticipate. A tightening of policy by the world’s most important central bank might... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update High prices cause surge in soybean planting Large stocks of corn, high crop quality ratings and a surge in soybean planting have pulled down grain and soybean prices in recent months. In the absence of a period of adverse weather over the... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum supply disruption is still a risk After many twists and turns, it now appears that the five-month long strike at South African platinum mines is finally over. At first sight, this should mean that mine supply will recover quickly... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMI data suggest only limited support for commodity prices Despite the rebound in the PMIs in both China and Japan in June, prospects for industrial commodity prices remain weak for now. Sluggish euro-zone manufacturing activity and the downturn in China’s... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three oil price scenarios from the Iraq crisis The situation in Iraq could play out in many ways. In a “good” scenario, the crisis would ease soon and there could even be some positive fallout for the region. (Our current forecast that Brent will... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher demand should boost US lumber prices We expect US lumber prices to rise over the next year as US house building picks up pace after the extremely cold winter. This should more than offset the impact of slowing property investment in... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US oil exports just one piece of the puzzle Despite the recent surge in US oil exports, the volumes of crude leaving the US remain minute. It is looking increasingly likely that some export restrictions will be relaxed, but this could take... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Silver set to outshine gold again Sentiment in the silver market has remained bearish this year, despite higher gold prices and the strength of global equities. Silver and gold can become disconnected at times, reflecting their very... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iraq now even less likely to reach oil production goals The capture of a number of Iraqi cities by insurgents over the last few days has served to highlight the difficulty Iraq will have in meeting its lofty aims for oil output. However, the impact on... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices are likely to continue to fall this year Good growing conditions in the US and elsewhere recently have boosted hopes of another set of bumper harvests. If realised, this should lead to sharp falls in prices, especially of soybeans. 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
