Commodities Update Will the gold price continue to stagnate? The current strength of equity prices has left gold in the shade and we are lowering our price forecastsfor the precious metal accordingly. But we still expect the positives to outweigh the negatives... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Demand worries continue to cloud near-term outlook The flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone in August are perhaps not as worrying as some of the headlines might suggest, but they do underline the downside risks to commodity demand from Asia and... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Have palladium prices further to climb? The recent rise in palladium prices can be attributed to actual and potential disruptions to supply andto solid demand growth. But the scale of the price increase is looking increasingly hard to... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US shale boom to continue to lift oil production Improvements in drilling technology and processes have continued to boost US shale oil output, evenwhen the number of rigs actually drilling has remained flat. These improvements should reduce... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to support copper prices in rest of 2014 Copper prices have slipped in the last week and we expect a more concerted move down as supply bottlenecks ease at a time of subdued demand growth. However, prices should stabilise and start to move... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s behind the decline in oil prices? Reports that Ukrainian forces have attacked a military convoy from Russia have pushed up oil prices today, but the bigger picture is that they remain much lower than only a few weeks ago. We suspect... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China’s steel producers export their way out of trouble? Despite weak domestic demand, China’s steel industry continues to raise output. Exports are providing an outlet for some of the oversupply, but this is only a partial solution. Prices will remain... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Have grain and soybean prices hit a floor? There is still scope for some small falls in nominal grain prices and larger ones in soybean prices in themedium term, especially if oil prices continue to fall back. Over the longer term we also... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russian ban to put downward pressure on food prices The enactment of import bans by Russia on agricultural commodities from a number of Westerncountries should put downward pressure on international food prices over the next year, withcommodities such... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean imports likely to fall next month China’s imports of key commodities were mixed in July, reflecting opportunisticbuying, the slowdown in the property sector and lower import activity related tofinancing deals. 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slump in US natural gas prices only temporary Mild summer weather in the US combined with an increase in production has pulled down US naturalgas prices over the last few months. However, we think that in the long term, higher demand from... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fracking to play a larger role in UK energy production The UK government’s announcement that it will open a new round of bidding for fracking licencesunderlines its enthusiasm for developing its shale resources. However, it will be many years if... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs to provide only limited support to commodity prices Despite the rise in the PMIs in both China and the euro-zone in July, the near-termoutlooks for industrial commodity and oil prices remain weak. Indeed, there arelingering concerns that the euro-zone... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Should we be worried by the fall in shipping costs? Freight costs, as measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), have fallen 68% since the beginning of 2014,largely reflecting the oversupply of vessels. However, in our view, the recent falls in the BDI... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why tin should be the next metal to stage a price rally Tin prices have barely moved this year, probably because unofficial stocks are being drawn down tomeet demand. However, in our view, there remains a strong case for prices to rally as demand appearsto... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The implications of the latest twist in the Ukraine crisis Russia is a vital source of global supply of a wide range of commodities, from energy to metals andgrains. At the time of writing, the likely repercussions of the shooting down of a civilian aircraft... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
