Commodities Update PMIs provide little support to commodities prices While China’s headline flash PMI rose in October, falls in the activity and new orders components do not bode well for commodities prices. Meanwhile, the euro-zone’s flash PMI suggests the region... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Poor supply prospects should underpin lead prices Lead prices have fallen this year, in large part owing to slower demand growth in emerging economies. However, supply prospects (both mined and refined) are deteriorating and official stocks are low... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price falls sharper than even we expected We think that the recent sharp falls in oil prices have more to do with increased production than a collapse in global demand. As such prices may rebound a little this year, as the worst fears about... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Silver to outperform gold as prospects for both improve For the third time since 2013 the price of gold has found decent support at around $1,200 per ounce. That level might be tested again soon, as fears over the global economy fade and the focus returns... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Glut of grain and soybeans to push prices lower The outlook for global grain and soybean production received another boost late last week as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) further increased its estimates for the 2014/15 harvest... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese domestic demand remains weak The recovery in China’s commodity imports last month was mainly driven by an increase in processing and re-exports, rather than stronger domestic demand. Indeed, the weakness in China’s property... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update LME warehouse reform no longer so relevant The LME’s warehousing reforms should facilitate access to metal from its warehouses, a factor that was creating artificial tightness in the aluminium market last year. However, the market has moved on... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply not demand weighing on the copper price We continue to expect the copper price to fall further in the fourth quarter but this forecast is premised on strong supply growth rather than a sharp drop in demand. Indeed, if supply disappoints... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How will OPEC respond to falling oil prices? There are several reasons why OPEC members in general – and Saudi Arabia in particular – are likely to be sanguine about the recent slump in the price of oil. Output will therefore continue to respond... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What risks does Ebola pose to commodity markets? Aside from cocoa, the outbreak of the Ebola virus in West Africa has not yet had a significant impact on commodity prices. The main reason is that the three most affected countries – Guinea, Liberia... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US natural gas stocks still low going into withdrawal season Lower stocks of natural gas in the US compared to this time last year make it more likely that there will be a repeat of the price spikes seen last winter. However, even if this winter is mild, we... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine’s gas deal a step in the right direction The potential restart of Russian gas sales to Ukraine is a positive step in relations between the two countries and should help to put downward pressure on the prices of European gas and coal. However... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong fundamentals will ultimately support palladium prices Palladium prices rose strongly for much of 2014 as rising concerns about supply attracted investor interest. In the last month, however, investors have been selling. In our view, solid demand growth... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to remain less than sweet Like many agricultural commodities, sugar has seen a price rout as earlier concerns over supply have evaporated. Despite the benchmark ISA sugar price being nearly 18% below its 2014 mid-May peak, we... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Focus on carbon emissions to weigh on coal and oil prices This weekend’s protests about climate change and yesterday’s UN summit are just the latest signs that the issue of climate change is being taken more seriously again. Whilst any sort of meaningful... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for platinum prices? Disappointing growth in demand at a time of high stocks is weighing on the price of platinum. Weexpect lower prices to encourage some buying, notably of jewellery, but a sustained recovery is... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
