Commodities Update How might the US midterm results affect US energy policy? The shift in the US political spectrum towards the Republicans could result in the restrictions on US oil exports being eased sooner than otherwise. However, the Republicans are likely to put most of... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower production estimates won’t stop grain prices falling Global corn, wheat and soybeans remain on course for record harvests this year. Combined with high stocks, lower energy costs and a stronger US dollar, we continue to expect crop prices to fall... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some brighter signs in China’s trade data There were signs of a pick-up in copper imports in China’s October trade data, while iron ore and crude oil imports were still up strongly in year-on-year terms. However, exports of some refined raw... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update New subsidy to slow cotton market adjustment in China A new subsidy programme for Chinese cotton producers outside of Xinjiang province is unlikely to have a major impact on the market and we still expect the global price of cotton to fall. Nevertheless... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What are China’s copper demand indicators saying? Concerns about demand, notably from China, have been one of the key factors cited by commentators to justify recent copper price falls. However, not all indicators of demand are flashing red. As such... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Demand for US corn to remain weak despite falling prices Although the price of US corn has fallen to levels last seen in early 2010, lower livestock numbers, limits on ethanol demand and lower international corn trade will prevent a large pick-up in demand. 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risk of spikes in US natural gas prices still high The recent unseasonably warm weather has given US natural gas companies additional time to boost stocks before heating demand picks up. However, the amount of gas in storage is still significantly... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Renewed weakness in gold price has a silver lining Talk of a collapse in the gold price is overblown (or at least out of date). The price of gold has arguably held up rather better in recent weeks than many might have anticipated, given the general... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine opt for treaties over tricks The deal between Russia and Ukraine should ensure that gas supplies flow freely to Europe this winter and should also reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently in European gas and coal prices. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Nickel sell-off is overdone Nickel prices have been in freefall since mid-2014 as, contrary to consensus expectations, the market has been comfortably supplied and stocks have been rising. We think this situation will prove... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to remain low despite weather conditions in Russia Amid reports that Russia’s autumn-sown crop is heading into winter in worse condition than five years ago, which preceded a slump in output and saw global wheat prices double, we caution against... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal output will still increase, but at a slower pace The current slump in coal prices is unlikely to lead to a significant fall in coal production over the next year. Instead, output should continue to grow, just at a slower pace than in recent years. 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falls in oil prices not enough to cut output We doubt that the recent fall in oil prices will have a significant impact on oil production over the next few years. The vast majority of global oil production, including US shale oil, is still... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some (very) tentative signs of rebalancing in the steel industry Growth in global steel production, even in China, has started to slow suggesting that the much-needed rationalisation of the sector has begun. However, it is likely to be a slow process. This is one... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee market set to tighten Notwithstanding the possibility of consecutive weather-damaged harvests in Brazil, given the combination of this year’s fall in Brazilian output in advance of an “off” year, and pressure on stocks as... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower fuel subsidies to dampen oil demand growth The recent sharp fall in oil prices should make it easier for governments in developing countries to reduce oil subsidies without dramatically increasing inflation. Meanwhile, a reduction in oil... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
