Commodities Update Copper demand should benefit from lower oil prices The slump in oil prices has been the catalyst for falls in other commodities, including copper. We think this ignores the very different fundamentals of the two commodities. Moreover, by boosting... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of cocoa to fall further as the market remains well-supplied Despite concerns about a chocolate shortage, the world cocoa market remains well supplied. With a slightly larger market surplus than originally estimated, and plentiful stocks, we think there is... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Policy will trump energy costs in the aluminium sector Aluminium production is a highly energy-intensive process, so shifts in global energy prices can have significant implications for output. That said, we expect government policy in China to be the... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Market response to OPEC inaction shows cheaper oil here to stay It was no great surprise that OPEC left its output target unchanged today, so the fact that global oil prices still took another large tumble towards our long-held forecast of $70 per barrel... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower oil prices will hit growth of fledgling LNG industry The impact of lower oil prices will be reflected in global oil-indexed gas prices in coming months. This will put pressure on the profitability of upcoming higher-cost LNG projects, most of which are... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran nuclear deal pushed back until June The extension of the talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear programme doesn’t come as a surprise. Nonetheless, lower oil prices should increase the pressure on Tehran to reach a deal... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese rate cuts to have limited impact on metals demand Industrial metals prices rallied on the news of Chinese interest rate cuts. However, while the central bank’s move suggests the authorities will continue with targeted stimulus measures, the cuts... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Plenty of upside for gold despite likely Fed tightening Gold remains out of favour with Western investors and commentators focused on the prospect of tighter US monetary policy and further dollar strength. But we see scope for a decent recovery in the... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Tin prices to soldier on, and up Tin prices have underperformed this year amid relatively subdued demand. However, slower growth in supply and solid demand should set the scene for price rises in 2015. 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update El Niño starting to warm up again The likelihood of an El Niño weather event this year has increased again. With ample sugar and wheatsupplies, any disruption to the upcoming harvests in the Asia-Pacific region is unlikely to lead... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs point to subdued commodity demand Falls in the flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone do not bode well for commodity prices. Activity indicators were weak in both regions, suggesting downward pressure on the prices of industrial... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Keystone XL delayed again, but likely to be approved next year Despite rejection yesterday, the Keystone export limited (XL) pipeline is likely to be approved early next year when the Republicans take control of the Senate. Eventually this should add to the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will ECB or SNB purchases boost the gold price? Hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will include gold on the list of assets to be purchased as part of a programme of full-blown quantitative easing (QE) will almost certainly be disappointed... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper mine supply likely to disappoint On paper, copper mine supply should surge next year. But the copper mining industry has a long history of supply disruptions and we see no reason why these will not continue. This is one factor... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How could the second China – Russia gas deal impact prices? Additional proposed gas exports from Russia to China are unlikely to have a major impact on European gas prices. We see a greater threat arising from the potential long-term price impact of Europe’s... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent heading for $70 The dip in the price of Brent below $80 per barrel in the last 24 hours is consistent with our long-held view that the world will soon be awash with oil. Indeed, global oil prices look set to hit $70... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
