Industrial Metals Update US steel prices should rebound in 2015 Recent weakness in US steel prices has mainly been driven by supply-side factors, not least Chinese supplies flooding the world market, as well as lower input prices. Considering the protectionist... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will gold’s strong start to 2015 be sustained? The resilience of gold in the face of a surging dollar and collapsing oil price supports our view that the precious metal will recover further this year and next. The prospects for silver look... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising stocks to undermine soybean and grain prices World soybean production remains on track for a record harvest and is set to exceed consumption for the third year in a row. With stock levels and the consumption-to-stocks ratio rising, we expect... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well The latest Chinese trade data show a rebound in most commodity imports in December, led by oil. While some buying was probably opportunistic, taking advantage of lower prices, the data also support... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of the latest slump in oil prices There is no compelling reason why oil prices cannot fall further in the near term, but the current market panic looks increasingly overdone. Other commodity prices have held up relatively well. We... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fall in US natural gas prices likely to be temporary Despite the recent weather-related fall in the price of US natural gas, we still expect prices to trend upwards over the next few years due to higher demand both at home and from overseas. 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Who is most exposed to the debts of oil majors? The fall in oil prices has raised concerns about oil majors’ ability to service debts accumulated during the good times. Risks are concentrated in Latin America, but there is plenty that both... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Impact of Russian wheat restrictions should be limited As a major exporter of wheat, any measures imposed by Russia to keep more supplies at home arelikely to result in higher global prices, though current market conditions should limit the upside... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Time to turn positive on base metals Somewhat stronger global growth – helped by the recent fall in oil prices – and, in some cases,uncertain supply prospects suggest that base metal prices should rise in 2015. However, we alsoexpect... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What should lower oil prices mean for other commodities? The conventional wisdom is that lower oil prices will add to the downward pressure on the prices of other commodities, many of which have indeed weakened. But while this may continue to hold true for... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs signal demand still weak Continued softness in flash PMIs this month, particularly in China, does not provide hope that commodity prices will benefit from a significant pick-up in demand. 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How low must oil prices fall to choke off shale supply? Although $60 per barrel is a fair long-run estimate, there is no single “magic number” for the oil price below which enough North American production becomes unprofitable for supply cuts to start to... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Expectations for world grain & soybean output rise again The outlook for global grain and soybean production has received a further boost, with the USDA upgrading its production estimates for the 2014/15 season. Assuming no severe supply-shocks, we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal market set for short-term recovery The international coal market continues to be oversupplied and demand remains fragile, not least in China. Despite a weak long-term outlook, there are some reasons to be optimistic in the short-term... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports supported by stockbuilding Lower prices encouraged some opportunistic Chinese buying of commodities last month but the likelihood is that, in many cases, stocks were being replenished rather than this being a sign of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sales of Thai rice stocks to push prices lower The fall in the price of Thai rice since August has coincided with the resumption of sales by the Thai government from its enormous stockpiles. Continued official sales into an already well-supplied... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
