Energy Update Rally in coal prices likely to be short-lived The rally in coal prices this year is unlikely to be the start of a sustained turnaround in fortunes for the beleaguered market. Stronger demand from India may continue to support prices over the next... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of record-low dry freight costs The further decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), to its lowest level since the series was first compiled in 1985, provides some more colour on current trends in the supply and demand for ships and... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong dollar likely to dent US soybean exports US wheat exports have struggled this year as the rising US dollar reduces competitiveness. We think the same could happen to soybean exports as the South American harvest gets under way. 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices likely to continue to rise, but slowly The rebound in the price of Brent over the last two weeks supports our view that oil prices will gradually climb back to around $70 per barrel over the medium term helped on their way by further... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Strong demand to lift palladium prices Expectations of strong growth in US and Chinese auto output and sales in 2015 underpin our forecast of a recovery in palladium prices. At the same time, supply remains constrained. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices to remain in the doldrums Lower input costs, weakening demand and overproduction led to sharp falls in Chinese steel prices over the last year. In our view, these factors will continue to weigh on the Chinese steel market in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher demand can’t offset rise in production In spite of higher forecast demand, the USDA has also revised up its estimates of year-end stocks for corn and wheat. And with ample soybean supplies, we continue to expect prices of all three to fall... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks failing to signal demand trends Stock movements, in general, continue to tell us more about the attractiveness of holding commodity assets off-market rather than anything about underlying physical demand. However, low official... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lift in wheat price is not the start of an upward trend The price of US wheat posted its first weekly rise since mid-December last week, rallying close to 5%. However, with ample global supplies, we think this rise will prove to be temporary. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports slip from December record While China’s commodity import volumes dipped in January, they are still holding up. With the exception of coal, the latest data underpin our expectation that China’s commodity imports will continue... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How big a threat is Fed tightening to gold prices? If nothing else changes, earlier hikes in interest rates by the US central bank would be likely to undermine the prices of precious metals, notably gold and silver. The 2% fall in the gold price after... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Positive sentiment towards agriculturals fades Abundant supplies of many agricultural commodities and concerns about weak demand are likely to be behind the general deterioration in sentiment towards agriculturals in recent weeks. Indeed, there... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Shifting dynamics in the tin trade Indonesia’s efforts to dictate the tin market look increasingly futile as China finds a new source of tin ore and lifts domestic refined production. However, despite the changing dynamics, the bigger... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is deflation good or bad for gold? While the price of gold may well rise further when inflation is high than when it is low, periods of deflation can also be positive for the precious metal. This is because of the financial and... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update European gas prices set to plummet European gas prices have been under downward pressure since early 2014. Given the plunge in oil prices, plentiful LNG supplies and high storage levels, prices should continue to fall in 2015. 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to the price of sugar remain to the downside We expect the price of sugar to remain close to its current level this year due to the continuing glut on the world market. A decision by India to re-introduce export subsidies would push the global... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
