Energy Update El Niño won’t be enough to reduce demand for gas The strong possibility of an El Niño event this winter could mean slightly lower demand for natural gas for heating and less disruption to offshore production. However, any impact from El Niño is... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand will push palm oil prices lower With huge soybean supplies likely to push down the price of soy oil, we expect demand for palm oil to remain weak. Combined with high stocks, we think the price of palm oil will fall further this year... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update High inventories & strong US dollar to wilt wheat prices The price of US wheat has been on a rollercoaster over the past two months. However, with high global stocks and a stronger US dollar, we think prices will trend down over the remainder of the year. 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update China and US, not Iran, most important for oil prices Oversupply and the looming return of exports from Iran are undoubtedly weighing on oil prices. However, prices are likely to continue to be more influenced by sentiment towards commodities in general... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to benefit from risk of industrial unrest The slump in platinum prices to the lowest level in over six years has forced South Africa’s mining companies to restructure, leading to job cuts. With the situation between labour unions and miners... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US shale firms squeeze every last drop Sharp falls in the cost of drilling and fracking shale oil wells mean that some firms can now be profitable even when oil prices are extremely low. This should help to reduce the sharp declines in oil... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Short-term supply concerns boost prices Renewed strength of the US dollar over the past month and a deterioration in sentiment towards commodities in general as an asset class, have been headwinds for commodity prices. However, short-term... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Asia Cocoa Grindings (Q2) Data on Asia’s Q2 cocoa grindings revealed a 12% y/y decline, the fourth consecutive y/y fall. This follows data released last week which showed continued weakness in North America and Europe. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China, Japan & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) Today’s weak PMI reading from China will reinforce the negative sentiment towards commodities, notably industrial commodities, but demand should still pick up on further policy easing. Meanwhile... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st-16th Jul.) Wet weather in the first half of July meant that the amount of sugar cane harvested in Brazil fell 37% compared to the second half of June. As a result, both sugar and ethanol production dropped... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How low could gold go? In an earlier Precious Metals Update, “Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold” (13 th March), we suggested that the gold price could fall as low as $850 per ounce in a worst case scenario... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What are global auto sales telling us about PGM demand? Despite slowing auto sales in China, we believe autocatalyst demand for platinum and palladium will increase by at least 3% in 2015, helping to underpin our positive view on the prices of both metals... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A stronger BDI need not signal higher commodity prices The sharp rebound in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) since the end of May has been seen by some as a harbinger of a more positive outlook for demand and prices of bulk commodities. However, we would argue... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investor sentiment towards commodities tanks Broad-based weakness saw industrial commodity price indices slip between mid-June and mid-July. The S&P GSCI agriculture index bucked the trend, although it too has eased back recently. What’s more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s corn and wheat imports surge in June China’s imports of agricultural commodities were generally strong in June, suggesting a pick up in underlying demand. However, opportunistic buying due to lower prices is likely to have been a factor... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China's refined nickel imports finally take off Prices may be plumbing new lows, but the detailed Chinese trade data are pointing to some positive trends in metal demand. In particular, the surge in nickel imports in June suggests that the domestic... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
