Commodities Evergrande collapse would put a ceiling on prices Although a messy collapse of Evergrande is a downside risk to our near-term price forecasts, it adds weight to our view that China’s construction sector is in structural decline. In turn, this... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Commodity prices on increasingly shaky ground After sharp falls in the middle of the month, most commodity prices ended August broadly flat. However, we doubt it will be long before the downward pressure on prices intensifies again. After all... 3rd September 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities US biofuel mandates unlikely to boost corn prices A decision by the Biden administration to increase US biofuel mandates in 2021 and 2022 has the potential to be a gamechanger for corn demand. However, we think that this is unlikely, which is one... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Supply disruptions remain a key risk The recent bounce in commodity prices continued this week, helped by the ongoing depreciation in the US dollar and a series of risks on the supply side which are rearing their head. Most notably, a... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Delta risks coming to the fore Oil prices have been on something of a round trip this week – falling at the start of the week as OPEC+ finally agreed to a new output agreement and the ongoing spread of the Delta variant fuelled... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities China’s industrial metals imports to weaken further China’s imports of most industrial commodities continued to fall in June. We expect import volumes of near all commodities, but especially the industrial metals, to ease further in the months ahead as... 13th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Waiting for the next OPEC+ move The oil market will probably struggle to find direction in the coming weeks until there is some resolution to the impasse created by the failure to reach unanimous agreement at the last monthly OPEC+... 9th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities An emboldened UAE scuppers the OPEC+ united front Oil prices were rising in June even before the July OPEC+ meeting ended in disarray, without agreement. Strong growth in demand as economies lift virus-related restrictions is expected to continue to... 6th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities China PMIs herald a period of slower growth China’s June survey data show softer growth in activity and supports our forecast that economic growth will slow from here, which will weigh on the prices of most commodities, especially the metals. 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities We think that commodities & US equities will diverge While commodities and US equities often move in the same direction, this is not always the case. We expect poor returns from commodities over the next few years, but reasonable returns from US... 29th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities What a Biden victory could mean for commodities A victory for the Democratic party in November’s presidential election has several potential implications for commodity markets. Very broadly, Joe Biden’s pledge to actively promote decarbonisation of... 30th October 2020 · 13 mins read
Commodities Ultra-low real yields to keep gold elevated Despite some jitters in equity markets, commodity prices generally ended the week higher. In what is becoming a well-worn pattern, optimism about a robust economic recovery continued to build – this... 24th July 2020 · 8 mins read
