Commodities Weekly Commodities wrapped; shipping chaos; OPEC frictions While the robusta price had the largest gain this week (~11%) due to ongoing drought and dry conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, the rebound in oil prices captured most of the attention, as this was... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update COP28 & long-run energy demand The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed-induced rally; Panama canal disruptions This week was a tale of two halves. In the first, prices generally came under pressure, including oil which continued its post-OPEC+ meeting plunge as concerns of oversupply persist. In the second... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Cocoa prices to stay hot through the holidays Cocoa prices neared a 45-year high in November on the back of concerns about supply from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Constrained supply alongside high seasonal demand will, in our view, continue to... 6th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to fall by the end of next year Rising OPEC+ output in Q2 2024 should leave global crude supply less constrained than we had previously expected. This, together with only modest growth in global oil demand, should push the crude... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold, geopolitics and the Fed We have raised our gold price forecast to reflect the current heightened geopolitical risk. We think the price will rise further next year as the limited fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict won’t... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly How high can oil prices go? In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Commodities Weekly Wrap to clients of the Energy Service. It was generally a strong week for commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions have... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil also higher for longer There wasn’t a clear trend in commodity prices this week. Natural gas prices in the US and Europe were among the largest risers, though those increases appear to have been driven by dips in regional... 29th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs encouraging for commodities demand While doom and gloom builds around China’s growth, PMIs for August provided some encouragement this week, even if they didn’t paint a picture of booming commodities demand. They suggest infrastructure... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Natural gas prices strike lower; iron ore resilient It has generally been a positive week for commodity prices. Most metals and agricultural prices rose on the week, in somewhat of a turnaround from recent trends. By contrast, energy commodities fell... 25th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs are grim reading for commodities demand China’s PMIs suggest that commodities demand has come completely off the boil. For the recent rally in industrial metals prices to be sustained, China’s policymakers will have to deliver on promises... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Focus The implications of EV rollouts on DM oil demand The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV... 31st July 2023 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain strong in June China’s commodity import volumes remained high in June, helped by the economic re-opening, but they were held back by softening input-related demand for the manufacture of goods for export. As... 13th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño puts your mochaccino at risk If the weather forecasters are right, El Niño conditions have arrived in the Pacific and are set to build over the next few months. The negative impact on agricultural production will depend upon the... 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities China’s imports firing on all cylinders in May Growth in China’s commodity imports generally was strong in May, with a notable rise in crude oil imports. While the data are consistent with our above-consensus outlook for China’s growth this year... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
