Asset Allocation Update Trump & ESG markets We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric... 25th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s energy woes need a permanent fix The electricity blackouts that have blighted Egypt this summer may be nearing an end. But in the absence of new major gas discoveries, in the longer run rising energy demand will result in renewed... 23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update China green exports hit a new record high Increases in solar panel and battery exports propelled our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes to a record high in June. Given the rapid expansion in Chinese manufacturing capacity... 22nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU carbon price has further to fall The ~10% fall in EU carbon prices since the end of May has mirrored a similar-sized fall in European natural gas prices, and we forecast both to fall by a further 25-30% by year-end. That said, the... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Injecting some nuance into high hopes for hydrogen Hydrogen could play a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking and be a boon for countries and regions that are well placed to produce a surplus of renewable power... 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update EMs are a growing market for Chinese green exports The continued divergence between export values and export volumes of the “New Three” underlines the downward pressure on prices from the rapid expansion in manufacturing capacity in China. Meanwhile... 20th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Fiscal constraints working against the green transition The tightening of fiscal constraints is putting pressure on politicians to pare back green investment ambitions. But kicking the fiscal can down the road on measures that could accelerate the green... 18th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Emissions in China are close to a turning point China’s rapid uptake of clean power means that it is on track to overachieve on its target of reaching peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. That said, the pace of decline will be slow at first... 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point? Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Attention turns towards the return of La Niña A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Chinese green export volumes remain at strong levels Whilst export values of the “New Three” fell for the sixth consecutive month in y/y terms in April, export volumes remained close to their record peak. Meanwhile, the sharp drop-off in China’s exports... 20th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Battery imports to bear the brunt of new US tariffs The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Economic implications of the heatwave Extreme heat across parts of India could be particularly damaging to the agriculture sector through both a drop in crop yields and a fall in labour productivity. But industry and services aren’t... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update What to make of the surge in China’s carbon price? The sharp rise in the price of carbon under China’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) this year, to a record high, underlines that Beijing sees carbon pricing as a key part of its emissions-reduction... 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
