China Economics Weekly Next in the spotlight: local government debt Investors sometimes talk about a ball of speculative money that rolls around China’s asset markets. There’s a ball of worry too, and it is rolling back into local government debt. The immediate... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the detailed Q1 GDP breakdown The Q1 GDP figures left little doubt that China's economy is rebounding more quickly than most had anticipated. The detailed sectoral breakdown published a day later received less attention but... 21st April 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the recovery so far Mixed recent data have fuelled an inconclusive debate about the strength of China’s economic rebound and how much need there is for additional policy support. In our view, most evidence suggests that... 14th April 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Infrastructure supporting services-led recovery The shape of China’s post-zero-COVID rebound has become clearer over the past week: primarily services-driven, as expected, but with stronger construction activity too, which appears to be mostly... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Is Brazil joining the renminbi club? China and Brazil are taking steps to allow bilateral trade to be settled in renminbi, another sign of closer ties between the two countries following President Lula’s election. But talk of them... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly A more targeted approach to chipmaking support China is retooling its approach to strengthening domestic chipmaking capabilities. But the obstacles the country faces still look insurmountable at the high-end of the sector. Meanwhile, upcoming data... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China has its own banking sector vulnerabilities China’s financial system has limited direct exposure to foreign banks. But recent global banking strains still pose some downside risk to the country’s economy. And China’s banking sector has... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the National People’s Congress China’s annual legislative session offers reasons for optimism and caution. On the one hand, conservative economic targets and policy settings suggest that officials are prioritising quality over... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the growth target The GDP growth target for 2023 will be revealed on Sunday at the opening of the National People’s Congress. There is speculation that it could be raised relative to last year but we think that’s... 3rd March 2023 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Case for rate cuts fades as financial stability concerns return Much of the focus in the coming days will be on the senior government appointments that will be confirmed at the National People’s Congress that starts in just over a week, including for the PBOC. We... 24th February 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Sign of a property turnaround are building Data published this week showed that property prices stabilised in January following a record 16-month decline. This adds to growing signs that the housing market is embarking on a cyclical rebound... 17th February 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export downturn, outbound tourism, EV subsidies Early signs are the China’s goods exports will fall further in the next few months. Outbound tourism though is surging with further major relaxations this week of COVID-linked limits on overseas... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal support on its way, IPO reform largely cosmetic Government bond issuance, a timely proxy for the fiscal stance, fell year-on-year last month. But all the signs are that this will be temporary, with borrowing likely to ramp up in the coming months... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Brighter days ahead for the housing market New home sales have almost halved over the past couple of years but a cyclical rebound appears to be kicking off now that government policy has turned more supportive on multiple fronts. 27th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday travel, population decline The number of Chinese travelling across the country to spend next week’s Lunar New Year holiday with their families looks set to almost double from last year. Meanwhile, those staying put in the... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly No wall of money but still plenty of upside for spending Tuesday’s retail sales data are likely to show that spending plunged as COVID crashed through China last month. But December was an age ago. The focus for investors now is on the speed of the recovery... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read