China Economics Weekly Shift in risk appetite needed to revive property Rumoured plans to support housing demand by reducing the upfront cost of home purchases probably won’t be a game changer. New homes are already more affordable than they’ve ever been and yet... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Don’t give up on the Chinese consumer just yet The pessimism around China’s consumer recovery is overdone in our view. The labour market is tightening, which should soon start to benefit young jobseekers and support income growth. And consumers... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Unfinished homes, chipmaking woes Detailed housing sales data show that worries about developers’ ability to complete projects continue to hamper demand. And despite some progress, the number of stalled projects remains very large... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary easing back on the cards In its latest policy report, the PBOC argued that the recovery has exceeded expectations and that the recent drop in inflation isn’t a major concern. Nonetheless, it still struck a dovish tone... 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Making sense of the reopening recovery After a string of underwhelming but inconclusive data releases, we should have a better sense of the strength of China’s post-zero-COVID rebound next week with the release of the April activity and... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer spending is back on track The Labour Day holiday was a key test of China’s consumer recovery. It passed with flying colours – domestic travel and tourism returned to normal, while retail sales look to have returned to the pre... 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Next in the spotlight: local government debt Investors sometimes talk about a ball of speculative money that rolls around China’s asset markets. There’s a ball of worry too, and it is rolling back into local government debt. The immediate... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the detailed Q1 GDP breakdown The Q1 GDP figures left little doubt that China's economy is rebounding more quickly than most had anticipated. The detailed sectoral breakdown published a day later received less attention but... 21st April 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the recovery so far Mixed recent data have fuelled an inconclusive debate about the strength of China’s economic rebound and how much need there is for additional policy support. In our view, most evidence suggests that... 14th April 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Infrastructure supporting services-led recovery The shape of China’s post-zero-COVID rebound has become clearer over the past week: primarily services-driven, as expected, but with stronger construction activity too, which appears to be mostly... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Is Brazil joining the renminbi club? China and Brazil are taking steps to allow bilateral trade to be settled in renminbi, another sign of closer ties between the two countries following President Lula’s election. But talk of them... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly A more targeted approach to chipmaking support China is retooling its approach to strengthening domestic chipmaking capabilities. But the obstacles the country faces still look insurmountable at the high-end of the sector. Meanwhile, upcoming data... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China has its own banking sector vulnerabilities China’s financial system has limited direct exposure to foreign banks. But recent global banking strains still pose some downside risk to the country’s economy. And China’s banking sector has... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the National People’s Congress China’s annual legislative session offers reasons for optimism and caution. On the one hand, conservative economic targets and policy settings suggest that officials are prioritising quality over... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the growth target The GDP growth target for 2023 will be revealed on Sunday at the opening of the National People’s Congress. There is speculation that it could be raised relative to last year but we think that’s... 3rd March 2023 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Case for rate cuts fades as financial stability concerns return Much of the focus in the coming days will be on the senior government appointments that will be confirmed at the National People’s Congress that starts in just over a week, including for the PBOC. We... 24th February 2023 · 6 mins read