China Economics Weekly Consumer sentiment softens, inflation risks rise The latest central bank surveys suggest that firms turned more upbeat this quarter as trade tensions eased and banks expanded lending. However, this positive shift in business sentiment has yet to... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal front-loading, land demand, BRI obstacles While China’s incoming economic data have mostly been weak recently, two under-reported positives have helped shore up growth: a fiscal splurge by local governments and strong property construction... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Three takeaways from the NPC Premier Li spoke to the press at the close of the National People’s Congress (NPC) today. He offered further details on the timing and scale of policy support – smaller than in previous cycles but... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly On contradictions (from the NPC) There is a tension between the policy stimulus announced this week at the National People’s Congress and the government’s goal of keeping the debt ratio stable. Ultimately, we expect officials to err... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Deleveraging delusions, market exuberance Policymakers are already billing the deleveraging campaign a success. But we doubt that the recent stabilisation of the debt ratio will prove durable. Meanwhile, Chinese equity prices have jumped... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade talk optimism, RMB stability pledge Negotiators are making progress sketching out the specifics of a US-China trade deal, which suggests that Trump is likely to postpone the tariff hikes scheduled for next week. But the big picture is... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Wider credit spreads dulling impact of policy easing Rising defaults have widened credit spreads during the past year, preventing borrowing costs for less creditworthy firms from falling in response to looser monetary conditions. Given that subprime... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi to weaken again, banks boost capital buffers Progress in the US-China trade talks and the dollar’s fall following the US Fed’s dovish policy statement this week pushed the renminbi to a six-month high. But we think that pressure on the currency... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Middle-income squeeze weighing on consumption On paper, China’s rebalancing is going swimmingly, with the consumption share of GDP growth jumping last year to its highest level in almost two decades. But this is hard to square with broader data... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to guide interest rates lower, 2017 GDP revised The liquidity injection by the PBOC this week was the largest on record. But it was mainly intended to manage the usual cash crunch ahead of Chinese New Year rather than loosen monetary conditions... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Official targets point to low expectations for 2019 The economic targets for 2019 that have been leaked this week signal official acknowledgement that China’s growth is slowing. Nonetheless, the low target for the fiscal deficit suggests that... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC eases policy, trade talks back in focus In keeping with its usual practice of making policy moves late on Fridays, the PBOC today announced a 100bp cut to the required reserve ratio aimed at supporting the economy and managing liquidity... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Xi’s flawed “China model”, PBOC’s new policy tool Xi Jinping used the 40 th anniversary of the start of China’s economic reforms to set out a narrative which placed state and, in particular, Party control at the heart of China’s subsequent economic... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade Concessions, Reform and Opening Up 2.0? China resumed purchases of US soybeans this week and pledged to cut auto tariffs. But to clinch a lasting trade deal, it will need to convince the US that it is moving ahead with long-promised... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariff Man or dealmaker? The arrest of Huawei’s CFO and recent Trump tweets boasting that he is “Tariff Man” have sparked concerns about the durability of the US-China trade truce. But there are still some grounds for... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariffs not benefitting other countries On the eve of the Xi-Trump showdown the latest data show that exports from China to the US of the goods affected by the first round of tariffs have fallen. But there is no sign that other countries... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
